Match Analysis: Nashville SC vs Toronto FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Geodis Park
Game Overview
Nashville SC, enjoying a strong home run (two consecutive MLS home wins, including a dominant 3-0 over Columbus Crew), hosts Toronto FC, who managed a 1-0 road win over San Diego FC but remain inconsistent. Nashville is chasing top positions, while Toronto is in danger of slipping in the table. The head-to-head history is closely contested, but recent trends favor Nashville at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC: 2.2 goals/game in last 10, 40% possession and clinical finishing last match. Toronto FC: Struggling with only 2 shots in last away game, but have shown they can score on the road.
- H2H last 11 games: Nashville 5 wins, Toronto 3, draws 3. Average goals/match: 2.82. Last meeting: 24 May 2025, Nashville won 2-1 at BMO Field.
- No major injury news reported. Lineups not expected to change significantly from recent matches.
- Nashville enjoys a loud, supportive home crowd at Geodis Park. No adverse weather reported. Toronto's long travel possible fatigue factor.
- Nashville pushing for top of the table, Toronto fighting to avoid slipping further down the standings. Nashville's motivation slightly higher given home advantage and playoff implications.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Nashville -235, Toronto +600, Draw +380 | Nashville SC Moneyline | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Nashville -1.25 -108, Toronto +1.25 -112 | Nashville SC -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.75 -112, Under 2.75 -108 | Over 2.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Nashville SC -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville’s home form, offensive output, and slightly better motivation make them a clear favorite, but Toronto is capable of scoring. Expect a tight first half, but Nashville to eventually pull away. Over likely on total goals given both teams’ tendencies.
Predicted Score: Nashville SC 3-1 Toronto FC