Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-17
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Grêmio's Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato clash features Grêmio hosting Fortaleza. Grêmio shows stronger recent form and superior historical performance at home, while Fortaleza has struggled with consistency and away form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio has a recent record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches, while Fortaleza has just 1 win, 1 draw, and 8 losses, indicating a significantly weaker form.
- In their last 16 encounters, Grêmio leads with 6 wins to Fortaleza's 4, and 6 draws, highlighting a slight edge for Grêmio historically, especially at home.
- No major injury updates were found for either squad, implying both teams are likely near full strength.
- Playing at home gives Grêmio a tangible advantage with crowd support; Fortaleza's poor away form factors against them.
- Grêmio, sitting better in the standings, have higher motivation to maintain momentum, while Fortaleza needs points but lacks recent confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio: 1.25, Fortaleza: 3.2, Draw: 2.3 | Grêmio | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Grêmio -1: 2.1, Fortaleza +1: 1.7 | Grêmio -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: 2, Under 2.5: 1.8 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio 40% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio to win
Predicted Score: 2-0