Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Game Overview
Atlanta United FC hosts Chicago Fire in a critical MLS clash. Both teams have struggled recently, with Atlanta winless in their last five and Chicago having one win in five. Chicago holds a better overall season record and superior offensive output, but Atlanta's home advantage remains significant.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlanta United is 2-1 in their last 5 games but winless in the last 5 matches overall and weak against the spread, particularly on the road. Chicago Fire has a stronger overall season standing with 8 wins and better goal stats but is on a poor recent run of 1 win in 5 games.
- The last meeting ended 2-1 in favor of Chicago Fire, showing their ability to beat Atlanta. Historically, Chicago has slightly edged Atlanta in direct matchups.
- No specific injury updates available; assume standard squad availability for both sides.
- Match played at Atlanta's home stadium, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which has produced mixed results but offers home advantage. The fixture's timing and conditions likely neutral for both teams.
- Both teams are motivated to improve standings, but Atlanta's poor position (26th) adds urgency, while Chicago (16th) seeks to consolidate mid-table safety.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta United FC: +110, Chicago Fire: +205, Draw: +300 | Chicago Fire | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Atlanta United FC -0.25 (-115), Chicago Fire +25 (-105) | Chicago Fire +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 3.25 (-118), Under 3.25 (-102) | Under 3.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Fire 53% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.25 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chicago Fire at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Fire to win on the moneyline due to better season form and recent head-to-head success, despite Atlanta's home advantage.
Predicted Score: Chicago Fire 2 – 1 Atlanta United FC