Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Mirassol - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-16
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Palmeiras Home Stadium
Game Overview
The match features Palmeiras, a top-rated team with a strong historical record against Mirassol, hosting Mirassol in the Campeonato Brasileiro 2025. Palmeiras has been the dominant side in head-to-head matchups and holds a higher overall team rating.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras holds a higher win rate overall (56% vs. 45%) and has a better recent form with fewer losses (1 loss in last 9 matches) compared to Mirassol's mixed results. Both teams average about 1.6 goals per match, but Palmeiras' defense is slightly more solid.
- Palmeiras leads the H2H record with 9 wins, Mirassol 3, and 2 draws in 14 matches. In recent direct meetings, Palmeiras won 2-0 and 3-1. Average goals per match in these encounters are around 3.14, with a high BTTS (both teams score) rate of 70.83%.
- No significant injury reports available that would undermine Palmeiras' starting lineup; Mirassol has no notable absences announced.
- The match being played at Palmeiras' home ground provides a strong home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed standard for the region and time.
- Palmeiras is motivated to maintain strong championship positioning, while Mirassol may aim for an upset but has less incentive given the form differential.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras: -235, Mirassol: 675, Draw: 350 | Palmeiras | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Palmeiras: 102, Mirassol: -122 | Palmeiras -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Over 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.25 spread, and the match to go over 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1
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