Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays in a competitive MLB matchup. Both teams have similar season records, with the Red Sox slightly ahead. Starting pitchers are Brayan Bello for Boston and Ryan Pepiot for Tampa Bay. The game is expected to be closely contested with a total run line set at 9.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston Red Sox hold a slightly better season record (52-45) than Tampa Bay Rays (50-46). The Red Sox have been strong at home, especially with Bello starting, who has a 6-2 record and 3.27 ERA. Tampa Bay has struggled on the road and against Bello's starts.
- In recent matchups, Pepiot holds a 0-3 record versus Boston with a higher ERA (4.91), while Bello is 2-2 against Tampa Bay. Boston also won the previous day's game 1-0, giving them momentum.
- No significant injury updates reported for either team impacting this game.
- Weather and venue are typical for Fenway Park in July with no adverse conditions expected. Home crowd advantage favors the Red Sox.
- Both teams are motivated to solidify playoff positioning post All-Star break. The Red Sox have a slight edge due to recent win and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -126, Tampa Bay Rays +108 | Boston Red Sox | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox -1.5 +162, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 -196 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 9 runs -100, Under 9 runs -120 | Under 9 runs | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win the game outright
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 4 – 2 Tampa Bay Rays