Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-25
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Palmeiras, currently 2nd in the Brazilian Serie A, face Sport Recife, who are struggling at 20th position. Palmeiras have strong recent form with unbeaten runs and solid scoring, while Sport Recife have shown resilience but lower scoring rates. Palmeiras have not lost to Sport Recife in the last 6 encounters, including 5 wins and 1 draw, indicating home dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras have won 3 of their last 5 matches including a 4-0 win in Copa Libertadores and a 2-1 league victory, scoring 7 goals total and conceding minimally. Sport Recife have been inconsistent, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches, scoring fewer goals and conceding more on average.
- Historically, Palmeiras and Sport Recife have played 30 times since 2007 with Palmeiras winning 14, Sport winning 12, and 5 draws. In recent meetings, Palmeiras have been superior unbeaten in 6 encounters (5W, 1D). Overall competitive edge lies with Palmeiras at home.
- No specific injury data available for this match as of current data. Likely Palmeiras have their main squad fit given no reports of absences, while Sport Recife's injury status is unclear but given poor form may have some squad limitations.
- Match played at Palmeiras’ home venue Allianz Parque, with home advantage expected to boost Palmeiras. No reported extreme weather or disruptions affecting game conditions currently.
- Palmeiras are motivated to secure a top league position and maintain unbeaten streak against Sport Recife. Sport Recife face relegation battles and are motivated to gain points but recent form suggests difficulty in overcoming Palmeiras.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras: -300, Sport Recife: 825, Draw: 385 | Palmeiras win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Palmeiras: -1.25 -122, Sport Recife: +1.25 102 | Palmeiras -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -102, Under 2.5: -118 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras are favored to win, likely by a clear margin given form, head-to-head dominance, and home advantage. Expect controlled gameplay from Palmeiras managing the match with goal scoring opportunities. Sport Recife may struggle to score but could contest for a goal.
Predicted Score: 2-0