Match Analysis: Newcastle United vs Liverpool – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-25
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: St. James' Park
Game Overview
The Premier League Round 2 match between Newcastle United and Liverpool will be held at St. James' Park. Liverpool enter with a strong recent offensive form, having scored 16 goals in their last 5 matches and maintaining an average of 4 goals per match, but have conceded frequently. Newcastle United have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches and have not scored in their last 2 games, struggling offensively. Historically, Liverpool have dominated the head-to-head with 17 wins to Newcastle's 5, along with 7 draws.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool boasts superior recent performance with consistent goal scoring but poor defensive record evidenced by no clean sheets in 12 matches. Newcastle shows offensive struggles with low recent goal output and no goals in the last two matches.
- Liverpool leads historically with 17 wins, Newcastle with 5, and 7 draws out of 29 past encounters.
- Newcastle United has notable absences: Alexander Isak is suspended, and Joseph Willock is doubtful due to an ankle injury. Liverpool currently has no significant injury concerns reported.
- The match will be officiated by Simon Hooper. Newcastle plays at home with the potential advantage of St. James' Park atmosphere.
- Liverpool currently tops the Premier League table with 3 points from one match, while Newcastle has 1 point from one match, suggesting higher motivation from Liverpool to maintain momentum early in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool: 1, Newcastle United: 2.28, Draw: 2.75 | Liverpool Win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Liverpool -0.5: -102, Newcastle United +50: -129 | Liverpool -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 1.33, Under 3.5: -1.79 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 -6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Liverpool at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool is favored to win due to stronger recent form, superior goal scoring, and historical dominance. However, Newcastle's home advantage and Newcastle's solid defensive motivation could limit the scoreline.
Predicted Score: Liverpool 2 – 1 Newcastle United