Match Analysis: Inter Milan vs Torino – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-25
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy
Game Overview
Inter Milan hosts Torino in the opening round of the 2025-26 Serie A season. Inter, currently 10th in the league, faces Torino, 17th, at their home ground San Siro. Historically, Inter is significantly dominant in their head-to-head encounters, with a strong recent home advantage. Both teams are seeking a positive start to the new campaign.
Key Factors to Consider
- Inter Milan has won 3 of their last 5 matches with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, demonstrating moderate offensive output coupled with some defensive vulnerability. Torino won 2 of their last 5 matches but has struggled offensively, scoring only 0.2 goals per match and conceding 1.6 on average.
- Inter Milan has the upper hand with 20 wins out of 32 games since 2007 against Torino's 4 wins, with 8 draws. Recent data shows Inter won 15, Torino 4, and 7 games ended in draws. Inter also has a strong home record, historically beating Torino with larger goal margins and higher points per game.
- Inter Milan faces key suspensions with Hakan Calhanoglu and Francesco Pio Esposito unavailable. Davide Frattesi is doubtful due to a hernia. Torino does not have reported suspensions or major injuries affecting their lineup for this match.
- The match is played at Interβs home stadium, San Siro, giving Inter a notable home advantage. No adverse weather or extraordinary external factors were reported that could impact play.
- Inter Milan, aiming to improve on last seasonβs mid-table finish, will be motivated to start strongly at home. Torino will be keen to avoid an opening-day defeat to escape relegation battles early, increasing their defensive focus.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Inter Milan: -230, Torino: 650, Draw: 387 | Inter Milan to win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Inter Milan -1.25: -108, Torino +1.25: -112 | Inter Milan -1.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -114, Under 2.75: -106 | Under 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Inter Milan -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Inter Milan is favored to win the match given their superior head-to-head record, home advantage, and stronger recent form, despite injury concerns.
Predicted Score: 2-0