Match Analysis: FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, USA
Game Overview
The MLS match between FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC pits a lower-ranked home side against a stronger away team. FC Dallas, ranked 11th, has struggled recently, especially at home with 4 losses in their last 6 home matches. Los Angeles FC, currently 5th in the league, have been more consistent and successful overall, holding a better points tally and winning the majority of their head-to-head encounters against Dallas.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Dallas has won only 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 goals per match but conceding 2.6, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Los Angeles FC's last 5 games show 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, with fewer goals scored (1.2 per match) but stronger defense, conceding only 0.6 goals on average. Los Angeles FC also have a higher Asian Handicap win rate (60% vs 20%) in recent form.
- Across 13 past meetings, Los Angeles FC have won 7 games, FC Dallas 4, with 2 draws. The two teams have not drawn in their last 9 matches against each other. Los Angeles FC also have an Asian Handicap win percentage of 66.7% in these matchups, and an over 66% rate on matches exceeding total goals expectance. Los Angeles FC tend to dominate in these encounters.
- No specific injury updates are currently available for either team ahead of this match.
- The match taking place at Toyota Stadium offers home advantage to FC Dallas, but their poor home form somewhat neutralizes this. Weather and pitch conditions are not reported to be impacting factors at this time.
- Los Angeles FC, with higher league standing and recent better performances, are motivated to maintain or improve their position. FC Dallas needs points to climb out of their lower table position, potentially increasing their urgency but also pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Dallas: 246, Los Angeles FC: -102, Draw: 275 | Los Angeles FC win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | FC Dallas: 50 -125, Los Angeles FC: -0.5 -106 | Los Angeles FC -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -143, Under 2.5: 108 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles FC 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles FC to win, given stronger overall form, better defense, and superior head-to-head record.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles FC 2 – 1 FC Dallas