Match Analysis: Calgary Stampeders vs Saskatchewan Roughriders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: McMahon Stadium, Calgary, Alberta
Game Overview
The Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-1) visit the Calgary Stampeders (6-3) in a crucial West Division clash. Saskatchewan seeks to avenge their only loss to Calgary this season, a 24-10 defeat on July 12, while Calgary aims to sweep the season series and solidify their playoff position. Both teams exhibit strong defensive and offensive capabilities with healthy rosters heading into the game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saskatchewan is the CFL's top team with an 8-1 record, riding a four-game winning streak, including a strong 29-9 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. They feature the best scoring defense in the league at 20.3 points allowed per game and a balanced offense led by QB Trevor Harris, who ranks fourth in passing yards and third in TDs. Calgary (6-3) comes off a bye week and a narrow 28-27 win over Winnipeg, with QB Vernon Adams Jr. returning from injury and providing a dynamic offensive presence, having thrown over 2,000 yards this season.
- Since 2010, Calgary leads the head-to-head with 29 wins against Saskatchewanโs 12. Recent clashes favor Calgary, who won 24-10 earlier this season. Both teams have an 80% ATS win rate in their last five games. Calgary averages 29.4 points per game allowing 17, while Saskatchewan averages 31.0 scoring 25.2 against. Total points have varied, with recent matches showing a tendency for under 50.5 points.
- Both teams report largely healthy rosters. Trevor Harris recently returned from injury providing offensive stability for Saskatchewan. Vernon Adams Jr. has also returned from injury, enhancing Calgaryโs offense.
- Calgary benefits from home-field advantage playing at McMahon Stadium. The Stampeders had a bye week which should help player recovery. Weather and other external conditions are expected to be neutral and not significantly impact play.
- Saskatchewan is motivated to avenge their sole loss of the season and maintain their top West Division ranking. Calgary is driven to sweep the season series and prove their competitiveness at home, making this a high-stakes matchup for both teams.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders: -110, Saskatchewan Roughriders: -110 | Saskatchewan Roughriders | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
| Spread | Calgary Stampeders: -122, Saskatchewan Roughriders: 100 | Saskatchewan Roughriders -1.5 | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: -110, Under: -110 | Under 50.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saskatchewan Roughriders -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 11% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Saskatchewan's strong recent form, top defense, and quarterback stability, they have a slight edge, but Calgaryโs home advantage and previous win over Saskatchewan make this a very close game. Expect a competitive match with a narrow Saskatchewan victory.
Predicted Score: Saskatchewan Roughriders 24 – Calgary Stampeders 21