Match Analysis: Nice vs Auxerre – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Riviera, Nice, France
Game Overview
The Ligue 1 match between Nice and Auxerre features Nice, currently 14th in the table, hosting Auxerre, who are in strong form holding 2nd place. Auxerre started the season positively with a 1-0 win over Lorient, showing defensive resilience and quick strike capability. Nice have struggled recently, failing to score in their last three competitive games and losing 1-0 to Toulouse in their most recent league match.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auxerre enters this game unbeaten with a strong start to the season and solid defensive performances. Nice have lost three in a row across competitions, including two 2-0 losses in Champions League qualifiers and a domestic league loss, highlighting offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Last season, Nice and Auxerre played twice with neither side dominating decisively. Their historical matchups are competitive, but in current form, Auxerre clearly have the edge in momentum. Recent H2H results are low scoring and closely contested.
- No specific injury reports are currently available for either team, suggesting both squads should be near full strength.
- The match is held at Allianz Riviera, giving Nice home advantage. However, Auxerre's confidence from their early league form and compact defensive style may offset this.
- Auxerre aims to maintain their strong league start and prove their top-table credentials, while Nice look to arrest a poor run of form and gain their first points of the season at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auxerre: 385, Nice: -157, Draw: 305 | Nice win favored but risky; a draw or Auxerre win is plausible due to current form | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Auxerre: 75 102, Nice: -0.75 -122 | Nice favored to cover -0.75 spread but tight; Auxerre +0.75 is a safer bet | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.75 -102, Under: 2.75 -118 | Under 2.75 goals likely due to defensive strengths and recent low-scoring trends | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nice 176% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nice at 176% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Auxerre to win or draw, given their superior form and defensive solidity, with a likelihood of a low-scoring tight game.
Predicted Score: Nice 1 – 1 Auxerre