Match Analysis: LDU Quito vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-21
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito, Ecuador
Game Overview
This is the second leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores round of 16 between LDU Quito and Botafogo. Botafogo currently leads 1-0 on aggregate after a narrow away victory in the first leg, with a lightning-fast goal early in the match. The game will be played at LDU Quito's home venue, offering them a chance to overturn the deficit in front of their home fans.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo, reigning Brazilian and Copa Libertadores champions, have shown solid defensive organization and quick attacking transitions, highlighted by their early first-leg goal. LDU Quito has struggled to create consistent chances away but tends to perform better at home and will need a strong offensive response.
- Recent direct matchups favor Botafogo with the 1-0 win from the first leg. Historical head-to-head data for these exact teams is limited for this season, but Botafogo's current form and status as champions provide psychological advantage.
- No specific significant injury reports are available for either team prior to this match.
- Playing at altitude in Quito gives LDU a physical advantage they may try to exploit. Climate and travel fatigue could impact Botafogo. Motivation is high for both sides due to the knockout nature of the fixture in an elite South American competition.
- LDU Quito must win or draw with sufficient goal margin to advance, spurring an aggressive approach. Botafogo aims to defend their aggregate lead and capitalize on counterattacks, motivated by their defending champion status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: 2.45, LDU Quito: 1.25, Draw: 2.2 | LDU Quito win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Botafogo +25: -105, LDU Quito -0.25: -125 | LDU Quito -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 1.18, Under 2.5: -1.55 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | LDU Quito 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: LDU Quito at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
LDU Quito is likely to push hard for goals at home, but Botafogo's defensive solidity and aggregate lead make a draw or narrow Botafogo away win most probable. The match could be tight and tactical, with low scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-0