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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Not explicitly provided, likely St George Illawarra home ground

Game Overview

The match is a key NRL clash between St George Illawarra Dragons and Sydney Roosters, two fierce rivals. The Roosters have dominated this fixture recently, winning 12 of the last 14 encounters, including the last four straight matches. The Roosters come off a shock loss and are motivated to assert dominance, while the Dragons are fighting to keep their season alive amid inconsistency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sydney Roosters have shown strong form and resilience, buoyed by the return of key playmaker Sam Walker. The Dragons have struggled with consistency and are relying on veterans like Damien Cook to lead defensively. Recent matches saw the Roosters thrash the Dragons 46-18 in Round 8, underlining their superiority.
  • Sydney Roosters have a significant edge in head-to-head matchups, winning 12 out of the last 14 games against the Dragons, including four consecutive wins.
  • Dragons have some players returning from injury including Luciano Leilua and Hamish Stewart, but have dropped Viliami Fifita and Loko Pasifiki Tonga. Roosters have Nat Butcher out but are boosted by the return of Sam Walker and additions like Billy Smith and Angus Crichton.
  • The match is being played in a high-pressure environment for both teams. The Roosters are eager to recover from their upset loss and solidify finals credentials. Broadcast access is broad, with coverage in major rugby league markets, increasing exposure and pressure.
  • Roosters are highly motivated to rebound from a recent upset and maintain their dominance in this rivalry. Dragons are motivated by the need to stay in finals contention, but their inconsistency could be a limiting factor.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons: 161, Sydney Roosters: -182, Draw: 2000 Sydney Roosters High
Spread Dragons +5.5: -110, Roosters -5.5: -120 Sydney Roosters -5.5 High
Over/under Over 47.5: -117, Under 47.5: -109 Over 47.5 Moderate

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sydney Roosters at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters to win straight up, continuing their strong recent dominance over the Dragons.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 18


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction

Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-07-12 Time: 7:30 AM UTC Location: Not explicitly provided, likely St George Illawarra home ground Game Overview The match is a key NRL clash between St George Illawarra Dragons and Sydney Roosters, two fierce rivals. The Roosters have dominated this fixture […]

July 12, 2025 Rugbyleague St George Illawarra Dragons Sydney Roosters

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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game Overview

The North Queensland Cowboys are facing a tough challenge as they host the Canterbury Bulldogs, who are favored to win. The Bulldogs have been performing well, but the Cowboys' home advantage could be a significant factor in this match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Canterbury Bulldogs have superior recent form, but the Cowboys are known for their resilience at home.
  • No recent head-to-head data suggests a significant advantage for either team.
  • The Cowboys have notable absences with Sam McIntyre and John Bateman sidelined, while Murray Taulagi may return.
  • The tropical conditions in Townsville could favor the Cowboys.
  • Both teams are highly motivated, with the Cowboys needing a win to stay in contention and the Bulldogs seeking to solidify their position.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -225, North Queensland Cowboys: 185 Canterbury Bulldogs Medium
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -7.5 -120, North Queensland Cowboys: 7.5 -110 North Queensland Cowboys +7.5 High
Over/under Over: 48.5 -115, Under: 48.5 -115 Under 48.5 Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canterbury Bulldogs are favored, but the Cowboys' home advantage and recent return of key players could make this a tighter contest than expected.

Predicted Score: Bulldogs 24, Cowboys 21


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Newcastle Knights vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Game Overview

The Melbourne Storm travel to face the Newcastle Knights in a significant NRL match. The Storm are currently in second place, while the Knights are struggling in 13th. The Storm are favored to win, given their strong recent form and the return of key players from Origin duties.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Storm have been consistent, winning 12 of their last 14 against the Knights. However, the Knights have won their last two home games against the Storm. The Knights lack consistency, having lost six of their last seven home games.
  • The Storm have a dominant head-to-head record against the Knights, winning 12 of the past 14 matches. However, the Knights' recent home victories against the Storm are noteworthy.
  • Kalyn Ponga remains sidelined for the Knights, while the Storm welcome back their Origin players. The Knights have made some adjustments, including Fletcher Hunt starting at fullback.
  • The Storm's motivation to secure the minor premiership could influence their performance.
  • The Storm's drive for the minor premiership and the Knights' desire to stay in contention for the finals could impact team motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -375 for Storm, 300 for Knights, 2400 for Draw Storm to win High
Spread -10.5 for Storm, +10.5 for Knights Storm to cover Medium-High
Over/under 46.5 Over Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -81%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm to win, given their recent form and the return of key players. The Knights' inconsistent performance and injury issues make a Storm victory likely.

Predicted Score: Storm 26 – Knights 16


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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. Dolphins Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs Dolphins – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-11
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Shark Park (Sharks Stadium), Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks face the Dolphins in Round 19 of the NRL at Shark Park, Sydney. Both teams come off a bye week, expected to be well-rested for a crucial contest. The Sharks are currently 10th on the ladder, seeking to halt a two-game losing streak and improve their form at home where they traditionally perform well. The Dolphins sit 7th, aiming to consolidate a top-eight finals position after a strong recent win over South Sydney. The Dolphins have the psychological edge, leading the head-to-head with two wins from two meetings, including a close 30-28 away victory earlier in the season. This match is critical for both teams’ finals ambitions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dolphins have been scoring prolifically, with 184 points in their last four games and strong individual performances like Herbie Farnworth's nine tries in 10 games. The Sharks have struggled, winning only one of their last five games, but have a strong home advantage and key players such as Ronaldo Mulitalo who has an impressive try rate at Shark Park.
  • The Dolphins are undefeated against the Sharks, having won both previous encounters including a decisive 36-16 win at Suncorp and a narrow 30-28 win at Sharks Stadium.
  • The Dolphins lost Kodi Nikorima to a hamstring injury, with Isaiya Katoa stepping into a greater playmaking role bolstered by confidence from recent NSW Blues camp involvement. The Sharks have named a stable squad including utility Daniel Atkinson returning on the bench, maintaining good squad continuity.
  • Both teams enjoying a week off prior to the match should negate fatigue factors. The Sharks benefit from home conditions at Shark Park. Broadcast coverage on major networks suggests a high-profile and closely followed game.
  • The Dolphins are motivated to cement their top-eight spot with a win, while the Sharks look to arrest a poor run and build momentum for a strong season finish. The Sharks' home crowd and history of tough home performances provide motivational leverage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -152, Dolphins: 132, Draw: 2100 Dolphins ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -3.5 -115, Dolphins: +3.5 -115 Dolphins +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -115 Over 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 40%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the Dolphins' strong recent form, undefeated record vs. Sharks, and scoring prowess, they are favored to win narrowly but the Sharks' home toughness and need for form recovery make it a close contest. The predicted outcome is a Dolphins win by a small margin.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 28 – 24 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks


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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-06
  • Time: 6:05 AM UTC
  • Location: 4 Pines Park, Brookvale Oval, Sydney

Game Overview

The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Round 18 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership at 4 Pines Park. Both teams are traditional rivals with a competitive recent history. The Rabbitohs have won 4 of the last 5 encounters and have a decent record at this venue, which is traditionally a stronghold for Manly. The match promises high intensity with valuable competition points at stake.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Manly is coming off a Round 17 game against Wests Tigers, preparing to face Melbourne next round. South Sydney recently played the Dolphins in Round 17 and will meet Penrith next. The Rabbitohs have struggled for consistent wins recently but have shown quality performances in patches, indicating potential to break their losing streak. Manly has home-ground advantage and a solid squad selection for this fixture.
  • South Sydney Rabbitohs have the upper hand historically with four wins in the last five encounters against Manly. Additionally, they have taken three wins from five matches at Brookvale Oval in recent times, softening the traditional home advantage for Manly.
  • No explicit injury updates available from the provided data. Both teams appear to have named full squads for this match, with Manly announcing a 22-man squad, hinting at minimal injury concerns impacting team selection.
  • The match is played at Brookvale Oval, which typically favors Manly, but recent Rabbitohs success here suggests a more balanced external environment. Weather or other conditions were not detailed but can be assumed standard for Sydney in July.
  • Both teams have a strong motivation to secure valuable competition points late in the season. South Sydney seeks to snap a recent losing run and maintain momentum against a traditional rival, while Manly aims to leverage home advantage and capitalize on their more stable recent form.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: -290, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 230, Draw: 2300 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: -9.5 at -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs: +9.5 at -115 South Sydney Rabbitohs +9.5 (cover the spread) ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 47.5: -115, Under 47.5: -115 Under 47.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 139%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 139% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 60.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the Rabbitohs' recent dominance in head-to-head meetings and competitive form patches despite inconsistent results, combined with Manly's traditional home strength, the match is expected to be close. The Rabbitohs have a slight edge due to form and psychological advantage. Predicted outcome is a Rabbitohs win by a small margin.

Predicted Score: South Sydney Rabbitohs 24 – 20 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles


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Sydney Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-06
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

The Sydney Roosters will host the Wests Tigers at Allianz Stadium in a Round 18 NRL clash. The Roosters are currently 6th on the ladder, while the Tigers sit in 14th place, struggling with a six-game losing streak. The Roosters have a long-standing dominance over the Tigers historically and look to continue their strong form despite missing key Origin players. The Tigers are desperate for a win to avoid the wooden spoon and turnaround their poor season.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sydney Roosters have a strong record against Wests Tigers, winning 18 of the past 19 encounters. Roosters winger Mark Nawaqanitawase and Daniel Tupou have been prolific try scorers recently. Wests Tigers have notable individual form from centre Starford To’a and winger Sunia Turuva, but their overall team form is poor with six consecutive losses.
  • Historically, the Roosters dominate the matchup, winning 18 of the last 19 matches between the two teams. This trend heavily favors the Roosters in this fixture.
  • Roosters are without several Origin stars including Angus Crichton, Connor Watson, Lindsay Collins, and Spencer Leniu. Egan Butcher returns from concussion, and Tom Rodwell and Max McCathie make their first-grade debuts. Tigers are missing Jarome Luai (NSW Origin) and Api Koroisau (concussion), balancing some of the absences.
  • The match is part of a double-header event at Allianz Stadium with large expected crowds and strong support for both NRL and AFL fans. The venue and atmosphere will be vibrant, potentially favoring the home side.
  • Roosters aim to solidify their finals position and maintain dominance over a struggling Tigers side. Tigers face immense pressure to break their losing streak and avoid the wooden spoon, adding motivation but also pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sydney Roosters: -420, Wests Tigers: 315, Draw: 2500 Sydney Roosters win ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Sydney Roosters: -13.5 -115, Wests Tigers: +13.5 -115 Sydney Roosters cover -13.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 49.5: -120, Under 49.5: -110 Under 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters are the strong favorites to win given their superior form, historical dominance, and home advantage. Wests Tigers may put up resistance due to motivation but likely fall short.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28 – 14 Wests Tigers


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm is a clash between a historically dominant Melbourne Storm and a competitively improving Cowboys side. Melbourne Storm have a strong overall head-to-head record against the Cowboys and have been the more consistent team in recent years. The match is set to be played at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, where the Cowboys have shown strong home form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Melbourne Storm have won 33 out of 46 matches historically against the Cowboys, including 17 of 21 home matches and 7 of 9 matches at AAMI Park. Their recent form includes a decisive 38-14 victory over the Cowboys on June 6, 2025. The Cowboys have had some solid performances at home, winning 3 out of 4 matches at Queensland Country Bank Stadium against the Storm, showing resilience on their turf. Overall, Storm dominate in point scoring (1120 vs 835) across head-to-head games.
  • The Melbourne Storm lead the historic head-to-head with 33 wins out of 46 matches vs the Cowboys' 13 wins since 1998. At Queensland Country Bank Stadium, the Cowboys lead 3-1 in recent matches, indicating stronger home advantage. Melbourne Storm have a longer winning streak (12 games) compared to the Cowboys' best streak of 3 against them.
  • No specific injury information was provided in the available data for either team for this match, suggesting both teams may be close to full strength.
  • Playing at home for the Cowboys generally boosts their performance, especially at Queensland Country Bank Stadium where they have won 3 of the last 4 matches against Melbourne Storm. Travel fatigue and scheduling could be minor factors but with a week gap from the last meeting, both teams should be physically prepared.
  • Melbourne Storm will aim to maintain their dominance over the Cowboys, especially after a recent big win. The Cowboys have motivation to defend their home ground and respond after the recent heavy defeat. Both teams have strong competitive drive given the significance of this fixture in the 2025 NRL season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm: -335, North Queensland Cowboys: 265, Draw: 2300 Melbourne Storm win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Melbourne Storm -10.5: -115, North Queensland Cowboys +10.5: -115 Melbourne Storm to cover -10.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 Over 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 49.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm are predicted to win this match owing to their dominant historical record, recent convincing victory, and overall stronger squad performance. However, the home advantage of the Cowboys could keep the scoreline competitive.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – 16 North Queensland Cowboys


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Canberra Raiders vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Game Overview

The Round 18 NRL match features the Canberra Raiders hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at GIO Stadium Canberra. The Raiders have home advantage and will look to leverage strong recent form and local support. The Dragons, traveling to Canberra, aim to overcome the odds as underdogs in this contest. Both teams have experienced mixed results this season, making the game an intriguing competitive fixture.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders have demonstrated solid performances at home in the 2025 season and have a more consistent win record compared to the Dragons. The Dragons have struggled on the road this season, which could impact their competitiveness in this match.
  • Recent head-to-head meetings favor the Canberra Raiders, who have won a majority of the recent encounters against the Dragons, especially at home. This history provides Canberra a psychological edge.
  • Latest injury reports suggest minor setbacks for both teams but no major absences that could drastically alter team dynamics. However, close attention to final team sheets is recommended closer to kick-off.
  • Home crowd support at GIO Stadium and familiarity with local conditions benefit Canberra. Weather forecasts predict typical Canberra winter conditions, unlikely to greatly disrupt play.
  • Canberra Raiders have strong motivation to consolidate their position in the league rankings before finals, while the Dragons aim to improve their season standing. The Raiders' home advantage likely adds an extra motivational boost.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -360, away: 270, draw: 2500 Canberra Raiders win ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: -11.5 -115, away: 11.5 -115 Canberra Raiders to cover the -11.5 spread ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: 46.5 -145, under: 46.5 110 Under 46.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Taking into account home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, Canberra Raiders are favored to secure a win against St George Illawarra Dragons with a confident margin.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – 14 St George Illawarra Dragons


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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-04
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Canterbury Bulldogs host the Brisbane Broncos at Accor Stadium in a critical NRL Round 18 clash. The Bulldogs come into the match with some squad changes but retain strong home ground advantage, while the Broncos face key absences in crucial positions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canterbury Bulldogs have shown resilience with solid team depth, integrating new players such as Blake Wilson and Enari Tuala. Brisbane Broncos, while competitive, are missing significant contributors including Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, which could impact their forward pack and attack dynamics.
  • Historical encounters between these two teams have been competitive, with recent fixtures showing closely fought contests. The teams are relatively evenly matched in past results though the Bulldogs have slight home advantage.
  • Canterbury Bulldogs are without Jacob Kiraz, Stephen Crichton, Max King, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, and Kurt Mann. Brisbane Broncos miss Reece Walsh, Gehamat Shibasaki, Payne Haas, and Patrick Carrigan due to injury.
  • The match takes place at Accor Stadium with expected good conditions, favoring the home side. Crowd support is likely robust for the Bulldogs. No adverse weather or logistical issues reported.
  • Both teams are vying for position in the league standings with the Bulldogs aiming to capitalize on home advantage and Broncos looking to overcome key absences and maintain playoff hopes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: 166, Canterbury Bulldogs: -197, Draw: 2100 Canterbury Bulldogs win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Brisbane Broncos: 5.5 -110, Canterbury Bulldogs: -5.5 -120 Canterbury Bulldogs -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 42.5: -145, Under 42.5: 110 Under 42.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the injury concerns for Brisbane and strong squad depth for Canterbury, the Bulldogs are favored to win this match with a moderate confidence level relying on home advantage and squad stability.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs 24 – 18 Brisbane Broncos


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Gold Coast Titans vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 6:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Game Overview

The Gold Coast Titans, positioned last on the NRL ladder with only four wins this season, face the North Queensland Cowboys who sit 12th. Both teams come into Round 17 struggling with form and recent heavy losses – the Titans lost 36-20 to the Eels while the Cowboys suffered a 42-8 defeat to the Roosters. The Titans will be looking to recover from inconsistency, while the Cowboys must respond after multiple recent heavy defeats. This Queensland derby is crucial for both sides aiming to arrest their downward trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Titans have demonstrated fluctuating performances this season, with moments of promise overshadowed by poor results such as the recent loss to the Eels where they also lost Jayden Campbell mid-match due to a head knock. The Cowboys have been struggling defensively, conceding over 30 points in three consecutive matches, including two losses with over 40 points conceded. Both teams face form uncertainties but the Cowboys have a slightly better recent run in terms of standings.
  • Historically, these Queensland rivals have had competitive encounters; however, current season form heavily favors the Cowboys who are higher on the ladder and arguably more stable despite their recent defensive lapses. The Titans have underperformed against top and mid-table teams this season and are seeking to capitalize on home advantage.
  • Key injury impacting the Titans is Jayden Campbell, ruled out mid-game last week with a Category 1 head knock. This forced the inclusion of Tom Weaver into the halves. The Cowboys do not have any notable injury news mentioned but are returning Origin players Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Mo Fotuaika to the Titans bench, which may boost Titans' physicality and morale.
  • The match is at the Titans’ home ground, Cbus Super Stadium, potentially providing a home crowd advantage. Both teams are under pressure due to recent heavy defeats which may affect confidence and motivation. Weather conditions or other external factors have not been specified.
  • Both teams are motivated to reverse poor runs: the Titans to lift themselves off last place and avoid further slide, and the Cowboys to halt defensive collapses and regain competitiveness. The Cowboys coach has publicly demanded improved effort and execution, which suggests strong motivation to respond positively.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gold Coast Titans: 128, North Queensland Cowboys: -143, Draw: 1900 North Queensland Cowboys ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gold Coast Titans: -4.5 -130, North Queensland Cowboys: +4.5 100 North Queensland Cowboys +4.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 51.5: -115, Under 51.5: -115 Over 51.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 51.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite the Titans' home advantage, the North Queensland Cowboys are predicted to win due to their stronger ladder position, recent form signals, and the Titans’ key injury and inconsistency issues. The Cowboys' defensive struggles may make it a high-scoring game, but their overall quality should prevail.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 28 – Titans 22


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