Match Analysis: Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: SeatGeek Stadium, Bridgeview, Illinois
Game Overview
The MLS matchup features Chicago Fire, currently 9th in the Eastern Conference with a 10-9-6 record, hosting St. Louis City SC, 14th in the Western Conference with a 5-14-6 record. Chicago Fire has a stronger offensive profile with higher shots, shots on target, goals, and passing metrics, while St. Louis City SC struggles with lower scoring and less effectiveness on offense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago Fire ranks higher with 10 goals per game and an overall balanced performance, including 5.6 shots on target per match versus St. Louis's 4.44 shots and 1.08 goals per match. Chicago also demonstrates better passing accuracy and defensive tackling success.
- There is limited direct recent head-to-head data for this fixture; however, Chicago Fireβs superior form and league standing suggest a historical edge over St. Louis City SC, which is still foundering towards the bottom of the table.
- Current data does not specify major injuries for either side ahead of the match. Both teams appear near full strength based on most recent squad listings.
- The match is at home for Chicago Fire at SeatGeek Stadium, which has capacity and fan support advantages. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be standard for mid-August in Illinois, unlikely to affect gameplay significantly.
- Chicago Fire, sitting mid-table in Eastern Conference, likely motivated to secure points to improve playoff positioning. St. Louis City SC, struggling near the bottom of Western Conference, motivated to gain points and improve form but faces an uphill battle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Fire: -172, St. Louis City SC: 390, Draw: 340 | Chicago Fire to win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Chicago Fire -0.5: -179, St. Louis City SC +50: 132 | Chicago Fire -0.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 107, Under 3.5: -143 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Fire -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering team form, statistics, home advantage, and odds, Chicago Fire is favored to win with a moderately high confidence level. St. Louis City SC may struggle offensively but could push for a low-scoring contest.
Predicted Score: Chicago Fire 2 – 1 St. Louis City SC