Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs Los Angeles FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, USA
Game Overview
New England Revolution hosts Los Angeles FC in an MLS clash at Gillette Stadium. Los Angeles FC ranks 5th in the Western Conference, pushing for playoffs, while New England Revolution stands 11th in the East, trailing playoff spots by 8 points. LAFC recently drew 2-2 against Chicago Fire, featuring the debut of star Son Heung-min. New England ended a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 victory over D.C. United, boosted by Carles Gil, their all-time leader in goal contributions. This is the first meeting between these teams since LAFC's 4-0 win in March 2023 and marks the culmination of New Englandβs homestand before heading on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- New England Revolution recently showed signs of revival snapping a winless streak with an emphatic 2-0 home win. They have scored 33 goals this season but remain low in the standings. LAFC has been more consistent, holding a solid 10-6-7 record and maintaining a competitive edge in the Western playoff race. Offensively, LAFCβs top scorer Bouanga with 14 goals and 6 assists offers significant firepower, while New England's Carles Gil leads their attack with 9 goals and 6 assists.
- In previous encounters, Los Angeles FC has dominated with 2 wins and 1 draw over New England Revolution. The last meeting ended in a 4-0 win for LAFC in March 2023, indicating a psychological edge for LAFC.
- No specific injury updates were reported for either team in the available data, suggesting both squads will likely be at near full strength for this match.
- Playing at Gillette Stadium, New England benefits from home advantage. The match atmosphere includes special events such as the 30 Seasons Anniversary celebration and a strong fan presence. LAFC's recent participation in the Leagues Cup could influence fatigue levels. Travel and schedule congestion for LAFC are possible external factors.
- New England wants to capitalize on breaking their negative streak and close the gap on playoff qualification with 9 games left. LAFC aims to solidify their playoff status in the West and leverage momentum from their recent performances and the addition of weighted signing Son Heung-min.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Revolution: 232, Los Angeles FC: 112, Draw: 248 | Los Angeles FC win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Los Angeles FC -0.5: 107, New England Revolution +50: -143 | Los Angeles FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -141, Under 2.5: 105 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles FC 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles FC are favored to win due to superior form, head-to-head dominance, and offensive capabilities, but New Englandβs recent resurgence and home venue provide a competitive edge. Expect a close match potentially decided by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: 1-2