Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game Overview
The MLS match between Toronto FC and Columbus Crew SC will take place at BMO Field in Toronto on August 16, 2025, at 23:30 UTC. Toronto FC is currently placed 12th in the league while Columbus Crew stands much stronger at 5th. Columbus Crew have been in better form, scoring 9 goals in their last 5 matches compared to Toronto FC's 3. Historically, Columbus Crew have dominated recent encounters, remaining unbeaten in the last 7 meetings against Toronto FC (6 wins, 1 draw).
Key Factors to Consider
- Columbus Crew SC has demonstrated superior offensive and defensive stats with 41 goals scored and 35 conceded this season, compared to Toronto FC's 26 goals for and 33 against. Columbus' key player Diego Rossi leads with 12 goals and 3 assists, while Toronto's top performer Djordje Mihailovic has 9 goals and 6 assists. Toronto FC has struggled recently with only 1 win in their last 5 games.
- In their all-time head-to-head record, Columbus Crew leads with 15 wins against Toronto FC's 12, with 9 draws. Notably, Columbus Crew have not lost to Toronto FC in the last 7 meetings, securing 6 wins and 1 draw.
- No specific injury data available from the sources, but lineups will be confirmed approximately an hour before the match.
- The match is held at Toronto FC's home ground, BMO Field, which could offer some home advantage despite their lower league standing. No other notable external factors such as weather or travel strain have been reported.
- Columbus Crew SC is motivated to maintain their higher standing in the MLS playoff race, whereas Toronto FC aims to climb out of the lower rankings and improve their recent poor form. Historical dominance by Columbus Crew may psychologically impact Toronto FC players.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC: -107, Toronto FC: 270, Draw: 270 | Columbus Crew SC win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Columbus Crew SC -0.5: -111, Toronto FC +50: -119 | Columbus Crew SC -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -143, Under 2.5: 107 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Columbus Crew SC at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Columbus Crew SC is favored to win given their superior recent form, better league position, and strong head-to-head record against Toronto FC.
Predicted Score: Toronto FC 1 – 2 Columbus Crew SC