Match Analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Red Bull Arena, New York
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS match features the New York Red Bulls hosting the Philadelphia Union. The teams recently met in the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals, where Philadelphia won a rain-soaked 3-2 match at Subaru Park. Both clubs are competitive and physically prepared, with Philadelphia currently holding a slight psychological edge from the recent win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia Union have shown strong recent form, notably their 3-2 victory against New York Red Bulls in the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals. New York Red Bulls displayed resilience despite the loss and will seek home advantage to adjust tactics and respond. Both sides have effective offensive units but also vulnerabilities in defense.
- The most recent encounter on August 13, 2025, ended 3-2 in favor of Philadelphia Union at their home. Historically, matches between these two teams have been closely contested, often yielding multiple goals.
- Current publicly available data does not indicate significant injuries to key starters for either side affecting this match. Both teams appear near full strength.
- Weather impacted their last encounter, causing delays and a rain-soaked pitch. The upcoming match at Red Bull Arena is scheduled without reported adverse weather, enabling more stable playing conditions. The home crowd support is likely a factor favoring New York Red Bulls.
- Philadelphia Union will be motivated to continue their recent winning streak and assert dominance following their cup victory. New York Red Bulls are driven to avenge the recent defeat, capitalize on home advantage, and improve their standing in MLS.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Red Bulls: 158, Philadelphia Union: 155, Draw: 260 | Philadelphia Union win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | New York Red Bulls: -0.5 -196, Philadelphia Union: 50 +146 | Philadelphia Union -0.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -137, Under 2.5: +104 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Union 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Philadelphia Union at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Philadelphia's recent successful encounter and slight edge in form, this game is expected to be tightly contested. A narrow win or draw in favor of the home team is the most probable outcome, with scoring expected from both sides.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Union 2 – 1 New York Red Bulls