Match Analysis: Millwall vs Middlesbrough – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Den
Game Overview
The EFL Championship match between Millwall (home) and Middlesbrough (away) on August 16, 2025, is a tightly contested fixture with a balanced historical record. Both teams have similar head-to-head results over recent years, and the match is expected to be competitive with relatively low scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Millwall has shown stronger recent form with 4 wins out of their last 5 matches, scoring on average 1.0 goal and conceding 0.4 per match. Middlesbrough's last 5 matches include 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, indicating a slightly weaker recent run.
- The two clubs have played 27 matches since 2009 with Millwall winning 9 matches, Middlesbrough 11, and 7 draws, showing a very balanced rivalry. In their last 5 encounters, Millwall has dominated with 4 wins versus Middlesbrough's 1. Recent matches have generally been low-scoring, with an average of around 1.0 to 1.5 goals per game[1][2][3].
- No specific injury updates are available from the provided data; lineups will be finalized closer to match time.
- The match is held at Millwall's home ground, The Den, giving them a slight venue advantage. No weather or other external circumstances were noted.
- This is an early season Championship fixture (Round 2), so both teams are highly motivated to start strongly. Millwallβs recent winning streak could boost confidence, while Middlesbrough will aim to respond and stabilize results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Millwall: 110, Middlesbrough: 245, Draw: 215 | Millwall to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Millwall: -0.25 -118, Middlesbrough: 25 -102 | Millwall -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 -105, Under: 2.25 -115 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Millwall 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Millwall at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Millwall's superior recent form, home advantage, and favorable head-to-head record in recent matches, the prediction leans towards a Millwall victory, possibly a narrow win, but a draw is also a realistic outcome given the historical balance.
Predicted Score: 1-0