Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-04
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on July 4, 2025, in a highly anticipated MLB matchup. The Cubs' starting pitcher is C. Rea (5-3, 4.37 ERA) while the Cardinals start M. Mikolas (4-5, 4.76 ERA). Both teams are competitive with comparable pitching stats, likely leading to a closely contested game. Betting markets currently favor the Cubs on the moneyline with odds -152, reflecting slight home advantage and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have shown solid performance at home with C. Rea holding a decent 5-3 record and a 4.37 ERA. The Cardinals have a slightly weaker starting pitching line for M. Mikolas at 4-5 and 4.76 ERA. Both teams' recent schedules suggest competitive form but with Cubs holding home advantage and marginally better pitching metrics.
- Historically, Cubs and Cardinals matchups are tightly contested with a strong rivalry atmosphere. The home field at Wrigley Field often boosts Cubs' performance. Exact recent head-to-head stats for 2025 are not fully detailed but previous seasons tend to be balanced with slight edge to home teams.
- No explicit injury reports are currently available for either team affecting key players for this matchup. Availability of starters and main roster players is confirmed.
- The match takes place on a significant date (July 4), which may bring high crowd energy and motivation, especially for the home Cubs. Weather or other venue conditions are not specified but Wrigley Field's outdoor setting can factor into gameplay.
- Both teams are motivated to win in this regional rivalry game mid-season. The Cubs have motivation to capitalize on home advantage, while Cardinals aim to secure an away victory to boost their standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -152, St. Louis Cardinals: 128 | Chicago Cubs to win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5: 122, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: -146 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 10: -105, Under 10: -115 | Under 10 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 10 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering pitching matchups, home advantage, and odds, the Chicago Cubs are favored to win with a moderately high confidence. Expect a competitive game with moderate scoring.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – 3 St. Louis Cardinals