Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-02
- Time: 4:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals in this MLB matchup following a tight 1-0 Pirates win the day before. Both teams show competitive pitching and slightly varied offensive capabilities, with the Cardinals favored in betting odds. The Pirates, as home underdogs, look to capitalize on momentum and home-field advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Pirates recently edged the Cardinals 1-0, showing strong pitching but limited offense. The Cardinals enter with a season record favoring solid performance when favored (-140 or better) with a 69.2% win rate in such games. Pittsburgh has managed a 40.7% win rate as underdogs at +118 or higher odds. Recent form indicates tight games and moderate scoring, with Cardinals hitting the over on totals only 4 of last 10 games.
- The immediate previous game saw the Pirates win narrowly 1-0 on July 1, 2025, indicating a competitive series. Both teams have shown defensive strength, but Pirates took the pitching edge in recent matchup with Isaac Mattson credited with the win.
- No specific injury reports detailed from recent data; both teams appear near-full strength for this matchup.
- The game is played at Pirates' home park (PNC Park) which may influence performance dynamics and crowd support. Weather and other conditions not provided but typically July weather in Pittsburgh is favorable for baseball.
- The Pirates will aim to continue their momentum following a narrow win to assert home advantage, while the Cardinals seek to bounce back and leverage their favored status and strong season form as favorites.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates: +118, St. Louis Cardinals: -138 | St. Louis Cardinals | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Spread | Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.5 -144, St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 120 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 8: -105, Under 8: -115 | Over 8 runs | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals to win a close and competitive game, leveraging slight overall season dominance and betting market confidence despite Pirates' momentum at home.
Predicted Score: Pirates 4, Cardinals 5