Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-30
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Detroit Tigers' home ballpark
Game Overview
The upcoming MLB game features the Detroit Tigers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Tigers enter as favorites with a moneyline of -134 and the Diamondbacks are underdogs at +114. The spread is set at Detroit -1.5 with odds +150 and Arizona +1.5 with odds -182. The over/under total runs line is 9 with over at +100 and under at -122. Both teams show competitive form with contrasting home/road records and recent performance trends.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers have a strong record when favored (-134 or stronger), winning 32 of 50 such games and 43 of 68 total as favorites this season. The Tigers have a middling against-the-spread record (51-52-0) and have gone over the total in about 46% of their contests. Arizona Diamondbacks have a 16-21 record as underdogs, winning 43.2% of those games, and have covered around 45.2% of their games. Both teams have a roughly balanced tendency on total runs scoring, with the Tigers and their opponents hitting over in 49 of 103 games and Diamondbacks in 53 of 104 games.
- No recent direct head-to-head statistics provided in the available data, but both teams are relatively competitive with slight edges to Detroit in home contexts and overall win probabilities.
- No specific injuries reported or mentioned in the data for either team at the time of analysis.
- Game played at Detroit home field, which historically favors the Tigers. Pitching matchup includes Detroit's C. Paddack (3-9, 4.95 ERA) vs Arizona's R. Nelson (6-2, 3.29 ERA), which may impact scoring and betting outcomes.
- Detroit Tigers appear motivated maintaining a positive record as favorites and hosting the game. Arizona Diamondbacks are motivated as underdogs capable of upset wins, demonstrated by a 58.8% win rate when priced +114 or longer as underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Tigers: -134, Arizona Diamondbacks: +114 | Detroit Tigers win | β β β ββ 54% |
| Spread | Detroit Tigers: +150 on -1.5, Arizona Diamondbacks: -182 on +1.5 | Detroit Tigers to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 52% |
| Over/under | Over: +100 on 9, Under: -122 on 9 | Under 9 runs | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers to win narrowly, covering the spread while the total runs will likely go under or near the line of 9 due to cautious pitching and balanced offenses.
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks 3