Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-22
- Time: 6:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds visit the St. Louis Cardinals for an MLB matchup. Both teams have competitive records with the Cardinals holding a slight advantage (42-35) over the Reds (39-38). The Cardinals have won the first two games of this series and have a favorable home record against the Reds. Starting pitchers are Andrew Abbott for the Reds (6-1, 1.84 ERA) and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals (4-4, 4.36 ERA), highlighting a clear pitching edge for Cincinnati[1][4][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cardinals are on a five-game winning streak and have shown strong performance at home, going 18-21 overall but with a positive recent trend. The Reds have a balanced 19-21 away record and are also competitive, but their recent form shows a slightly inconsistent pattern. The Cardinals have outperformed the Reds in head-to-head so far this season, particularly in St. Louis[4][5].
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Cardinals lead 6-4 and have won the first two games of this series with a cumulative score of 12-6. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five home meetings with the Reds, demonstrating a home-field advantage in this rivalry[4].
- No significant injury reports for either team affecting key players in this matchup have been reported based on available data.
- Playing at Busch Stadium grants the Cardinals home-field advantage. Pitching matchup favors the Reds with Andrew Abbott's superior ERA (1.84) and WHIP (1.01) compared to Mikolas' ERA (4.36) and WHIP (1.30). Weather and other conditions are standard for a mid-June game in St. Louis with no reported external disruptions[5].
- The Cardinals aim to sweep the series at home after winning the first two games, maintaining momentum on a five-game winning streak. The Reds are motivated to avoid a series sweep and capitalize on Abbott's strong pitching form to swing momentum back in their favor[4][5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -110, St. Louis Cardinals: -106 | St. Louis Cardinals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 142, St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 -172 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9.5: -102, Under 9.5: -120 | Over 9.5 runs | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals are favored to win due to home-field advantage, recent form, and dominance in the current series, though the Reds' superior pitching staff led by Andrew Abbott keeps the contest competitive.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6 – Cincinnati Reds 4