Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-19
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers in a closely matched MLB game. Both teams have shown competitive form this season, with the Cubs holding a slightly better record. The pitching matchup features Cubs starter Jameson Taillon (7-3, 3.48 ERA) against Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Recent series and season performances indicate a tight contest with the Cubs favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago Cubs have a strong home record and perform well as favorites, winning over 73% of games when favored at least -120 on the moneyline. The Brewers have been competitive but struggled in recent key games including a recent loss to the Cubs in the series. Milwaukee holds a 39-35 record, while the Cubs are 45-28 this season.
- Recent series show the Cubs winning the last game 5-3, with both teams trading leads early but Chicago pulling ahead late. Both teams are competitive within the NL Central, with the Brewers currently second and Cubs leading.
- No significant injury news reported for either team affecting the starting lineups or pitchers for this matchup.
- The game is at Wrigley Field, giving the Cubs home-field advantage. Weather and other external conditions have not been reported as factors.
- The Cubs are motivated to maintain their lead in the division and build on recent series success. The Brewers aim to close the gap and improve their standing, adding intensity to the contest.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -112, Milwaukee Brewers: -104 | Chicago Cubs win | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs: 1.5 runs -192, Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 runs +158 | Chicago Cubs +1.5 runs cover | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: +100, Under 8.5: -122 | Under 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 -4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chicago Cubs at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Chicago Cubs are predicted to win this game with a moderate confidence margin. The home advantage combined with a proven starting pitcher and recent form gives the Cubs an edge over the Brewers.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 3