Match Analysis: FC Dallas vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Toyota Stadium
Game Overview
The match features FC Dallas hosting St. Louis City SC in a tightly contested Major League Soccer fixture. Both sides have shown balanced head-to-head results with 2 wins each and 1 draw in their five meetings. Historically, matches between these teams have averaged about 1.8 goals per game, indicating a moderately scoring encounter and potential for tight defenses.
Key Factors to Consider
- FC Dallas have struggled defensively recently, conceding in every match over their last 12 and having the worst penalty record in the season with 7 conceded. Their attack has produced 9 goals in the last 5 matches but they lost 4 of those. St. Louis City SC has also had mixed performances, showing ability to score but conceding as well, with recent H2H results favoring neither side decisively.
- In the last five direct matches, FC Dallas and St. Louis City SC are evenly matched with 2 wins apiece and one draw. Average goals per game is around 1.8, with recent games showing a mix of close results and some high scoring matches.
- No specific injury updates are available from the current data sources; lineups and any key absences are expected to be known closer to match time.
- The match being played at Toyota Stadium gives FC Dallas home advantage. The timing in mid-season could also affect player fatigue and motivation. Weather and pitch conditions are not indicated but could be standard for MLS July fixtures.
- Both teams are keen to gain points to improve their league standings. FC Dallas, having some recent defensive issues, will be motivated to stabilize at home, while St. Louis City SC will look to exploit away opportunities and improve their record against Dallas.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Dallas: 110, St. Louis City SC: 235, Draw: 270 | FC Dallas to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | FC Dallas: -0.25 -122, St. Louis City SC: +25 102 | FC Dallas to cover the spread (-0.25) | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 -120, Under: 3 100 | Under 3 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FC Dallas 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering FC Dallas' home advantage but recent defensive vulnerabilities, and St. Louis City's balanced but unspectacular away form, a closely fought match is predicted, with a slight edge to FC Dallas to eke out a narrow win or draw.
Predicted Score: 2-1