Match Analysis: Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
Game Overview
The highly anticipated rematch between unified heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk and IBF champion Daniel Dubois will take place on July 19, 2025, at Wembley Stadium in London. Usyk and Dubois previously fought in 2023, with Usyk winning by a ninth-round TKO in a controversial bout. Usyk aims to defend and unify all heavyweight belts while Dubois seeks redemption and to retain his IBF title. This fight marks the first undisputed heavyweight title fight on British soil, with both fighters demonstrating dramatic career trajectories, including Usykβs victories over Tyson Fury and Duboisβs rebound from his first loss to Usyk.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oleksandr Usyk, 38, is undefeated with a 23-0 record (14 KOs) and has secured dominant wins including two over Tyson Fury. Daniel Dubois, 27, holds a 22-2 record (21 KOs) and has shown resilience by regaining his IBF title and defending it successfully after his loss to Usyk.
- Usyk won their first encounter in 2023 via a ninth-round TKO after surviving a controversial low blow ruling. The rematch raises stakes with all heavyweight belts on the line and a more prepared Dubois aiming to overcome the previous defeat.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of the July 19 bout as per current available information.
- The fight was postponed by one week to avoid competing with other major boxing events, ensuring maximum viewership and atmosphere at Wembley Stadium. Fighting in London may slightly favor Dubois as an English fighter, but Usykβs experience fighting globally at the highest level diminishes any home advantage.
- Usyk is motivated to cement his legacy as the undisputed heavyweight champion for a second time. Dubois is driven by redemption and the opportunity to solidify his status as a top heavyweight by avenging his only loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oleksandr Usyk: -350, Daniel Dubois: 280 | Oleksandr Usyk | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Usyk -2.5: -120, Dubois +2.5: 100 | Usyk -2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 rounds: -120, Under 9.5 rounds: 100 | Under 9.5 rounds | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oleksandr Usyk 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oleksandr Usyk is favored to win by decision or late stoppage given his technical superiority, championship experience, and previous victory over Dubois. However, Dubois' power and youth could produce moments of threat, making a competitive fight likely.
Predicted Score: Oleksandr Usyk wins by 10-round unanimous decision or 8th-9th round TKO