Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays in a closely contested MLB matchup. The Red Sox have won the last two encounters against the Rays with scores of 5-4 and 1-0, showing a solid pitching performance and clutch hitting, recently highlighted by a walk-off home run. This game is expected to be competitive with strong pitching and tactical play from both teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston Red Sox have a slight edge having won their last two games against Tampa Bay, including a recent tight 1-0 victory showing strong pitching by Garrett Crochet (10-4). Tampa Bay Rays lost narrowly despite good offensive efforts. Both teams have decent hitting but pitching performances will likely determine the outcome.
- Recent head-to-head results favor Boston Red Sox with two consecutive wins over Tampa Bay Rays: 5-4 on July 11 and 1-0 on July 12, 2025. The games have been low scoring and closely contested.
- No specific injury reports available in the current data for key players from either team that might directly affect this match.
- The game is at Fenway Park, Boston, a venue known for favoring teams with strong pitching and strategic hitting. Weather and other external conditions are not indicated as significant.
- The Red Sox are on a season-best winning streak and motivated to extend it at home. Tampa Bay Rays are looking to rebound and disrupt the Red Sox momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox: -126, Tampa Bay Rays: 108 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Boston Red Sox: -1.5 162, Tampa Bay Rays: 1.5 -196 | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 9 100, Under: 9 -122 | Under 9 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win a close, low-scoring game based on recent form, superior pitching, and home advantage.
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 3 – 2 Tampa Bay Rays