Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Corinthians Home Stadium
Game Overview
The upcoming Campeonato Brasileiro match between Corinthians and Bragantino-SP is set to be highly competitive. Historically, both teams have shown balanced results in their head-to-head encounters, with Corinthians holding a slight edge in wins and goal difference. The match is expected to feature moderate goal scoring, consistent with their recent averages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians has won 12 of 30 previous direct matches and scores on average 1.28 goals per game this season, with over 1.5 total goals in 76.19% of home matches. Bragantino has 10 wins in direct matches, averaging 1.24 goals per game, with over 1.5 total goals in 71.43% of away games but only 28.57% exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Across 30 to 33 meetings since 2006, Corinthians leads narrowly with 12-14 wins versus Bragantino's 10-10 wins, with 8-9 draws. Goal difference favors Corinthians by a small margin (e.g., 35-30 goals). Their encounters often end with close scorelines; the most common home result for Corinthians is 1-1.
- No specific injury reports or suspensions are available currently for either team, implying squads should be near full strength.
- Playing at home gives Corinthians an edge given their strong home scoring record and recent form. No notable external disruptions or weather conditions reported ahead of the match.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their league standings. Corinthians’ slight home advantage and marginally better recent results heighten their incentive. Bragantino looks to challenge and capitalize on recent away performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians: 1.1, Bragantino-SP: 2.65, Draw: 2.3 | Corinthians to win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Corinthians: -0.25, Bragantino-SP: 25 | Corinthians -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2, Under: 2 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Corinthians 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on balanced historical data, current form, and home advantage, Corinthians is predicted to win narrowly or for the match to end in a draw with moderate goal scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-1