Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-11
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: Sharks Stadium, Sydney, Australia
Game Overview
The Round 19 NRL match sees the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks host the Dolphins at Sharks Stadium. Both teams are coming off a bye week, offering rest and preparation time. The Sharks, currently 10th on the ladder, seek to break a recent two-game losing streak and regain home form. The Dolphins, positioned 7th, aim to consolidate their top-eight standing after a strong recent victory over South Sydney.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Sharks have struggled recently, winning only one of their last five games, but remain formidable at home. The Dolphins have been in excellent form, scoring 184 points in their past four games and boasting top performers like Herbie Farnworth with nine tries in 10 games. Sharks winger Ronaldo Mulitalo has been prolific at home with 38 tries in 37 games. The Dolphins' injury to Kodi Nikorima brings Isaiya Katoa into a larger playmaking role, potentially strengthening their attack.
- Historically, the Dolphins have dominated, winning both of the only two previous meetings against the Sharks, including a narrow 30-28 win at Sharks Stadium in 2024. The Sharks have yet to defeat the Dolphins in NRL competition.
- The Dolphins are missing Kodi Nikorima due to a hamstring injury, which could impact their halfback dynamics. No major injury concerns reported for the Sharks, with Craig Fitzgibbon naming a familiar squad to maintain consistency.
- Both teams are well-rested after a bye week, which should level physical readiness. The match will take place in Sydney, favoring the Sharks' home advantage. The game is scheduled for an evening kickoff and will be broadcast live on multiple platforms, ensuring maximum exposure and motivation.
- The Sharks are motivated to halt their losing streak and strengthen their finals chances, while the Dolphins look to solidify and improve their top-eight position after a dominant performance before the bye. Emerging players like Isaiya Katoa add a confidence boost to the Dolphins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -152, Dolphins: 132, Draw: 2100 | Dolphins win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -3.5 (-115), Dolphins: +3.5 (-115) | Dolphins +3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 | Over 46.5 points | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 40% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 46.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Dolphins hold the edge given recent form, head-to-head dominance, and offensive potency. However, the Sharks' home advantage and their strong individual performers like Mulitalo make this a tightly contested match. A close win to the Dolphins is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 28 – Sharks 24