Match Analysis: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-06
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy, USA
Game Overview
The MLS match between Real Salt Lake and St. Louis City SC is scheduled for July 6, 2025, at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah. Real Salt Lake currently ranks 13th in the Western Conference while St. Louis City SC is just behind in 14th place. Both teams have had challenging seasons, with Real Salt Lake showing slightly better offensive metrics and possession stats compared to St. Louis City SC.
Key Factors to Consider
- Real Salt Lake has a record of 5-10-4, demonstrating modest offensive output with an average of about 1 goal per game, and ranks 6th in shots per game. St. Louis City SC, with a 3-11-6 record, struggles offensively and defensively, ranking low in shots (19th) and goals scored (26th). Real Salt Lake shows stronger passing and game control metrics as well.
- The historical head-to-head data in this MLS season show closely matched encounters, but Real Salt Lake holds a slight edge playing at home. No recent matchups have been high scoring, indicating a competitive but defensively cautious matchup.
- No specific injury updates were provided in the current data, suggesting that both teams might field their regular lineups.
- The match takes place at Real Salt Lakeβs home stadium, Rio Tinto Stadium, which provides them home advantage in terms of fan support and familiarity with the pitch. Weather and travel fatigue factors are not highlighted as concerns.
- Both teams are positioned low in the standings, making this match crucial for points to avoid relegation pressure and improve playoff chances. Real Salt Lake likely has marginally higher motivation due to home advantage and better recent form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Salt Lake: -135, St. Louis City SC: 330, Draw: 320 | Real Salt Lake win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Real Salt Lake: -0.75 -110, St. Louis City SC: +75 -110 | Real Salt Lake to cover the spread (-0.75) | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3: -108, Under 3: -112 | Under 3 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Salt Lake 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Real Salt Lake is favored to win this match given their better statistical performance, home advantage, and slightly superior current form.
Predicted Score: Real Salt Lake 2 – 1 St. Louis City SC