Match Analysis: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Shell Energy Stadium
Game Overview
Houston Dynamo hosts St. Louis City SC in an MLS regular season match at Shell Energy Stadium. Houston Dynamo have struggled this season with a 0-2-3 record and only 2 points, while St. Louis City SC have a stronger start with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, accumulating 8 points. The match is poised to be competitive as Houston seeks to capitalize on home advantage and break their winless streak against a motivated St. Louis squad.
Key Factors to Consider
- Houston Dynamo have been underperforming early in the season with no wins and only 2 points from 5 matches. St. Louis City SC have been more consistent with 8 points from 5 matches, featuring multiple players contributing goals and assists, indicating a balanced offensive threat.
- This is an early-season meeting with limited recent historical data, but current form favors St. Louis City SC given their higher point accumulation and better squad performances.
- No specific injury updates disclosed from the provided data, suggesting both teams will likely have key players available for this match.
- Houston Dynamo has the home advantage at Shell Energy Stadium. External distractions appear minimal, with no reported issues affecting team preparations.
- Houston Dynamo are motivated to earn their first win of the season at home, while St. Louis City SC aim to continue their strong start and climb the standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Dynamo: -120, St. Louis City SC: 300, Draw: 285 | Houston Dynamo win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Houston Dynamo -0.5: -118, St. Louis City SC +50: -102 | Houston Dynamo -0.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -125, Under 2.75: 105 | Under 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Dynamo -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis City SC are favored to edge out Houston Dynamo due to better form and squad depth, but Houston's home advantage and desperation for points could make this a close, low-scoring contest.
Predicted Score: 1-0