Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-25
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Toronto FC Home Stadium
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS match between Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls features two teams with contrasting recent form and historical records. New York Red Bulls have historically dominated this fixture, winning 27 of 49 matches and posting stronger recent results, while Toronto FC has struggled, especially in recent encounters against this opponent. The average goals per match between these teams is relatively high at around 2.8, pointing to potential attacking opportunities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto FC currently averages 1.00 goal per match this season with a low winning rate against New York Red Bulls, having lost their last five encounters. New York Red Bulls have scored an average of 1.62 goals per match, showing better offensive output and defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals on average. Toronto FC tends to have fewer games going over 2.5 goals at home compared to New York’s away performance, which often features more goals.
- Historically, New York Red Bulls hold a dominant record with 25 wins in direct matches against Toronto FC’s 10 wins and 11 draws. Recent meetings since 2023 reveal New York winning 4 out of 5 matches against Toronto with one draw, including decisive 3-0 and 4-1 victories. Average goals per head-to-head match stands near 2.83, indicating relatively open games.
- No specific injury information was provided, so no major injury concerns are noted for either side based on available data.
- Home advantage is with Toronto FC, but recent home performance suggests they have not capitalized well against New York Red Bulls. External factors like travel and fatigue likely favor New York given their better recent road form.
- New York Red Bulls have stronger momentum and psychological edge given their recent dominance and away wins, whereas Toronto FC will be motivated to break their losing streak and leverage home support. The stakes mid-season may push both teams to be more aggressive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Red Bulls: 130, Toronto FC: 220, Draw: 230 | New York Red Bulls to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | New York Red Bulls -0.25: -102, Toronto FC +25: -118 | New York Red Bulls -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Red Bulls 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: New York Red Bulls at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering historic dominance, recent form, and scoring trends, New York Red Bulls are favored to win with a moderate confidence level. Expect a competitive match with multiple goals, but New York’s superior offensive and defensive metrics give them the edge.
Predicted Score: New York Red Bulls 2 – 1 Toronto FC
