Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 8:06 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Milwaukee Brewers in a matchup where the Phillies are strong home favorites against a competitive Brewers squad. The Phillies have a historical edge, especially at home, but the Brewers have shown recent form and capability.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Phillies have a slight recent edge in head-to-head (3-2 in last 5), but the Brewers are on a strong run (4-1 in their last 5). Overall, Philadelphia averages 4.5 runs per game against Milwaukee, while the Brewers average 3.8 runs per game[2]. The Phillies have a superior overall record (56% win rate) and dominate at home, while the Brewers are solid but not as consistent[4][5].
- All-time: Phillies 99-81 (55% win rate) against the Brewers. Last meeting: Brewers won 2-1 on Sep 18, 2024[4][5]. Recent trends slightly favor the Phillies, but the Brewers have had their own streaks and big wins.
- No major injury updates known at time of writing. Both teams are expected to field strong lineups.
- Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly venue, potentially favoring over outcomes. Weather is typical for late spring, with no significant impact expected.
- Both teams are in the playoff hunt. The Phillies are motivated by their home advantage and historical superiority, while the Brewers have momentum from recent wins and will aim to upset.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: 164, Philadelphia Phillies: -196 | Philadelphia Phillies | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Milwaukee Brewers: 1.5 -134, Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 112 | Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over: 8 -118, Under: 8 -104 | Over 8 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win narrowly, likely in a game with 7–9 total runs. The spread is tight, but the Phillies’ home field and historical edge suggest a cover is possible.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 4