Match Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-12
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC main event between Charles Oliveira, a submission specialist with a longer reach and finishing rate, and Mateusz Gamrot, a wrestler with a strong takedown average but less finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oliveira has an 89% finishing rate and excels in submissions, while Gamrot holds a strong wrestling base with higher takedown averages. Oliveira has been less consistent recently but possesses high fight IQ and finishing ability.
• No recorded previous matchups between Oliveira and Gamrot; styles suggest Oliveira's Jiu-Jitsu could counter Gamrot's wrestling.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight taking place in Brazil, Oliveira's home country, which may give him psychological and crowd advantage.
• Oliveira seeking to reestablish himself as a top lightweight contender; Gamrot eager to prove himself on a big stage and in prime age.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: -112, Mateusz Gamrot: -108	Charles Oliveira	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Charles Oliveira -5.5: 120, Mateusz Gamrot +5.5: -165	Mateusz Gamrot +5.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 3.5: 105, Under 3.5: -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Charles Oliveira at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Oliveira to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Rio, Brazil

Game Overview

Deiveson Figueiredo and Montel Jackson face off in a bantamweight bout at UFC Rio. Jackson enters as the betting favorite based on recent superior form and statistical advantages. Figueiredo, although known for finishing ability, is viewed as the underdog due to Jackson’s steady performances and favorable recent outcomes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montel Jackson has displayed consistent form with unanimous decision wins and good durability. Figueiredo has power and finishing capability but has shown vulnerability recently and fewer finishes in his last fights.
• No previous fights between Figueiredo and Jackson; thus, no direct historical comparison exists, increasing the importance of recent form and style matchups.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout.
• The fight takes place in Brazil, potentially favoring Figueiredo with home crowd advantage, but Jackson’s mental readiness and current momentum may offset this.
• Jackson appears highly motivated to solidify his rising status in the bantamweight division, whereas Figueiredo aims to return to winning form after setbacks, which could impact strategy and risk-taking.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Deiveson Figueiredo: +235, Montel Jackson: -290	Montel Jackson	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Deiveson Figueiredo +3.5: -110, Montel Jackson -3.5: -120	Montel Jackson -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -195, Under 2.5: +150	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Montel Jackson -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 50%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Montel Jackson to win via unanimous decision

Predicted Score: Montel Jackson wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

This welterweight bout pits Vicente Luque, a seasoned 33-year-old fighter with a record of 23-11-1, against Joel Alvarez, a 32-year-old with an impressive 22-3-0 record but stepping up in weight class. Alvarez is heavily favored by bookmakers, and the fight showcases a clash of two orthodox strikers with slightly different styles and physical attributes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alvarez has a winning record of 22-3 and has demonstrated strong defensive and striking skills, absorbing fewer significant strikes per minute than Luque. Luque possesses a higher volume striking rate (5.02 per minute) but also absorbs more strikes (5.25 per minute), revealing a more aggressive but riskier style.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez.
• Joel Alvarez suffered a hand injury earlier in the year but there are no current injury reports affecting either fighter ahead of this fight.
• The fight takes place in Brazil, Luque's home country, potentially giving him home crowd support. However, Alvarez's physical advantages in height (6'3" vs. 5'11") and reach (77" vs. 75") may neutralize this.
• Alvarez is highly motivated to maintain his rising trajectory in the UFC with an 81.7% implied win probability and the pressure of being heavy favorite. Luque seeks to redeem recent setbacks such as a submission loss in June, adding motivation for an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joel Alvarez -550 / Vicente Luque +410	Joel Alvarez	★★★★☆ 77%
Spread	Joel Alvarez -7.5 (-280) / Vicente Luque +7.5 (200)	Joel Alvarez -7.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (+110) / Under 1.5 (-140)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joel Alvarez -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joel Alvarez to win on moneyline

Predicted Score: Joel Alvarez wins by TKO/KO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Heavyweight MMA bout between Jhonata Diniz (9-1) and Mario Pinto (10-0) featuring two orthodox fighters of similar height and reach with contrasting striking accuracy and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diniz has a strong 9-1 record with solid striking volume and defensive efficiency, landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy and defending 59% of incoming strikes. Pinto is undefeated at 10-0 with lower volume (3.67 strikes per minute) but much higher accuracy (71%), though he allows a higher rate of significant strikes against him (5.29 per minute) and a lower defensive rate of 51%. Pinto’s youth and perfect record indicate momentum, but Diniz’s defensive skill and experience suggest a tougher challenge than Pinto has faced to date.
• No direct history between Diniz and Pinto, making this a stylistic matchup based on striking efficiency and defense.
• No reported injuries or recent layoffs for either fighter, suggesting both are entering in peak condition.
• Fight at home for Diniz in Brazil could boost motivation and crowd energy, potentially influencing close moments. Both fighters have Orthodox stance and equal reach (79 inches).
• Diniz at 34 aiming to solidify status with a big win over an undefeated rising star. Pinto at 27 motivated to maintain perfect record and prove dominance at heavyweight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz: -135, Mario Pinto: +114	Jhonata Diniz	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jhonata Diniz -3.5: +110, Mario Pinto +3.5: -150	Jhonata Diniz -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -250, Under 1.5: +190	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 103%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 103% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Jhonata Diniz to win. Spread: Jhonata Diniz -3.5. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 9:45 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll face off in a highly competitive Flyweight UFC prelim bout, both with strong records and contrasting styles. Rocha is a younger fighter with a robust grappling base and defense weaknesses, while Nicoll is more accurate and defensively sound striker with a slight reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lucas Rocha has a 17-2 record, landing 2.00 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but allowing 4.48 strikes per minute. Stewart Nicoll sports an 8-1 record, delivering 3.02 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and allowing only 1.13, indicating superior striking efficiency and defense.
• No previous head-to-head encounters between the two fighters; styles and statistics provide primary insight.
• No reported injuries or recent complications for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, Lucas Rocha’s home country, possibly providing him with crowd support. Nicoll is fighting away from home, which may impact motivation slightly but also reduces pressure.
• Rocha, at age 25 and entering his prime, has a strong motivation to maintain trajectory and capitalize on home advantage. Nicoll, experienced at 29 with a solid record, is likely motivated to prove himself on the UFC stage against a top contender on foreign soil.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lucas Rocha: -118, Stewart Nicoll: -102	Stewart Nicoll	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Lucas Rocha -3.5: 105, Stewart Nicoll +3.5: -140	Stewart Nicoll +3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: 135, Under 2.5: -175	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Stewart Nicoll -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Stewart Nicoll at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Stewart Nicoll to win via moneyline, covering the fight spread slightly by decision or late stoppage, with total strikes tending under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Stewart Nicoll wins by unanimous decision or late round stoppage; fight ends before 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Valter Walker vs Mohammed Usman – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Rio

Game Overview

Heavyweight bout between Valter Walker and Mohammed Usman scheduled for UFC Rio prelims. Walker is the favorite according to current odds, with a strong recent record and physical advantages in height and reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Valter Walker is currently on an upward trend with notable wins, including a recent dominant performance over Kennedy Nzechukwu. Mohammed Usman recently snapped a brief losing streak with a unanimous decision win but is the underdog.
• No previous fights between Valter Walker and Mohammed Usman, making this their first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the fight.
• The fight is part of a major UFC event at UFC Rio, in Walker's home country Brazil, which may give him a motivational edge and crowd support.
• Walker appears highly motivated coming off several victories and fighting at home. Usman, while motivated to rebound from previous losses, faces an uphill battle as the underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Valter Walker: -310, Mohammed Usman: 250	Valter Walker	★★★★☆ 73%
Spread	Valter Walker -3.5: -195, Mohammed Usman +3.5: 140	Valter Walker -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5: 120, Under 2.5: -154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Valter Walker -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Valter Walker to win by decision

Predicted Score: Valter Walker wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 8:35 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Julia Polastri, a 27-year-old rising Brazilian strawweight prospect with a 13-5 record and strong Muay Thai skills, faces 39-year-old veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz, a former title challenger with a 16-9 record. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds in the UFC Strawweight division at UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro.

Key Factors to Consider

• Polastri is younger with a more aggressive striking style, landing 5.62 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, while Kowalkiewicz averages 5.54 strikes at 43% accuracy. Both absorb similar damage rates, but Polastri has a slight edge in striking efficiency.
• No previous head-to-head matches between Polastri and Kowalkiewicz.
• No significant reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, giving Polastri home advantage crowd support. Kowalkiewicz has prior UFC fights in Brazil with mixed results (1 win, 1 loss).
• Polastri aims to establish herself as a top contender and capitalize on home advantage. Kowalkiewicz seeks to rebound after consecutive losses in 2024, looking to reclaim momentum late in her career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Julia Polastri: -470, Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +360	Julia Polastri	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Julia Polastri -3.5: -120, Karolina Kowalkiewicz +3.5: -110	Julia Polastri -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -445, Under 2.5: +310	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Julia Polastri -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 154%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 154% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Julia Polastri to win via decision

Predicted Score: Julia Polastri wins by unanimous decision (3 rounds)

Match Analysis: Tarik Khbabez vs Bahram Rajabzadeh – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: RTM Stage, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Game Overview

The GLORY 104 Light Heavyweight title fight between Tarik Khbabez and Bahram Rajabzadeh features two top-tier knockout artists known for their aggressive, explosive styles. Khbabez, the former champion, looks to reclaim his title after losing it earlier in 2025, while Rajabzadeh enters as a dangerous and popular challenger riding a streak of six consecutive knockout wins.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khbabez holds a strong record of 52-12-1 with 28 KOs and has showcased resilience and endurance in fights, while Rajabzadeh is more prolific with a 72-5 record and 64 knockouts, demonstrating relentless finishing ability over recent bouts.
• There are no known previous matchups between Khbabez and Rajabzadeh, making this their first direct encounter.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter going into this match, both appear fully fit following recent activity.
• The fight takes place on neutral ground in Rotterdam; Rajabzadeh's nickname and fighting history may energize him, while Khbabez benefits from familiarity with GLORY events and a strong fan base.
• Khbabez is highly motivated to recapture the lost title and solidify his legacy; Rajabzadeh aims to cement himself as a dominant champion following an impressive knockout streak, adding a psychological edge to each fighter's approach.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-140 for Rajabzadeh, +115 for Khbabez	Bahram Rajabzadeh	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	-1.5 at -110 for Rajabzadeh, +1.5 at -110 for Khbabez	Rajabzadeh -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -120, Under 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bahram Rajabzadeh to win on the moneyline with a knockout finish.

Predicted Score: Rajabzadeh wins by KO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Rade Opacic vs Mike Kena – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: RTM Stage, Netherlands

Game Overview

The fight features Rade Opacic (22-7, 17 KO) of Serbia against Mike Kena (9-1, 7 KO) from Congo in the Last Heavyweight Standing tournament semi-final event at Glory 104. Both fighters are 28 years old with strong knockout power, presenting a highly competitive match.

Key Factors to Consider

• Opacic has a longer pro record and has recently secured a victory over Ionut Iancu. Kena is on a strong upward momentum with 7 KOs in 9 wins but lacks the extensive high-level experience Opacic has.
• No previous head-to-head matchups available; this is their first meeting.
• No reported injuries or physical setbacks for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Both fighters are competing in a tournament setting which can affect pacing and risk-taking. Opacic’s experience in tournament shows his ability to manage multiple fights.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Opacic aiming to consolidate his recent tournament success while Kena looks to make a mark on the bigger stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-140 for Opacic, +120 for Kena	Opacic	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	-1.5 Opacic (-110), +1.5 Kena (-110)	Opacic -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Under 2.5 rounds (-105)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Rade Opacic to win

Predicted Score: Opacic wins by decision or late-round TKO within 3 rounds