Match Analysis: Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-01
- Time: 8:15 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Game Overview
The Sydney Roosters will host the Canberra Raiders at Allianz Stadium in Round 13 of the 2025 NRL season. The Raiders currently sit 2nd on the ladder and the Roosters 11th, making this a crucial clash for both teams’ season aspirations. The Raiders are coming off a tough but controlled win against the Warriors in wet conditions while the Roosters upset the Sharks with a comprehensive 42-16 victory despite missing five Origin players. Both teams have their Origin stars returning, aiming to boost their chances in this important fixture.
Key Factors to Consider
- Canberra Raiders have shown strong form recently, managing a disciplined 16-10 win against the Warriors in difficult conditions. The Roosters demonstrated their squad depth and attacking potency with a 42-16 win over the Sharks, overcoming absences due to Origin duties. Both teams appear to be recovering well from representative matches, suggesting a competitive encounter.
- Their last meeting at Allianz Stadium in Round 26, 2025, saw the Raiders narrowly defeat the Roosters 14-12. Historically, matches between these teams are closely contested. The Roosters have scored first in their last nine games, which could be pivotal in setting the tone for this match.
- The Roosters have several players backing up after Origin duties: Collins, Leniu, Watson, Toia, and Crichton. Tom Starling from the Raiders is suspended for this match, with Owen Pattie stepping in at hooker. Danny Levi will debut off the bench for the Raiders this season, and Hudson Young is expected to start in the second row, adding forward strength.
- The match will be played at Allianz Stadium with potential wet weather, which previously challenged the Raiders but they managed well. Both teams have home and travel considerations, with Canberra traveling from the Nation’s Capital. The game will be broadcast live on Fox League, Kayo, and WatchNRL for overseas fans.
- The Raiders are motivated to maintain their high ladder position and continue their winning streak after recent tough matches. The Roosters aim to capitalize on home advantage and improve their standing after a recent morale-boosting upset. Milestone motivation is present as Raiders’ Josh Papalii will equal the club appearance record, which could inspire his team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canberra Raiders: -114, Sydney Roosters: -105, Draw: 1800 | Canberra Raiders | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Canberra Raiders: -1.5 -110, Sydney Roosters: +1.5 -120 | Canberra Raiders -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 | Under 46.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canberra Raiders -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given their current form, ladder position, and recent head-to-head results, the Canberra Raiders have a slight edge over the Sydney Roosters. The Raiders’ defensive discipline in wet conditions and key inclusions like Hudson Young strengthen their chances, though the Roosters’ home advantage and attacking impetus cannot be underestimated. Expect a tightly contested match with the Raiders predicted to win by a small margin.
Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 18 – Sydney Roosters 16
