Match Analysis: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-01
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: Accor Stadium (Stadium Australia)
Game Overview
The Round 13 NRL match between South Sydney Rabbitohs and New Zealand Warriors is set for June 1, 2025, at Accor Stadium. South Sydney enters the game seeking a third consecutive win after a bye and recent victories against Brisbane Broncos and Wests Tigers. Historically, South Sydney has dominated head-to-head encounters at this venue with eight wins out of the last nine meetings, though the Warriors claimed a heavy 30-point victory in their most recent meeting here. The Warriors come into the game after a five-match winning streak was snapped by Canberra Raiders, suffering their first home defeat of the season. Despite sitting third on the ladder, the Warriors have a negative points differential, which could be a vulnerability in this crucial clash.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Sydney has been strong recently with an 80% win rate and four wins in the last five head-to-head clashes against the Warriors. The Warriors showed solid form with a five-match winning streak before their recent loss but have inconsistencies related to points differential and recent home defeat.
- In 41 matches between the two clubs, South Sydney leads narrowly with 21 wins to the Warriors' 20. Recently, South Sydney has dominated, winning eight of the last nine meetings at Accor Stadium. The last match at this venue was a significant 30-point win for the Warriors.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, with the Warriors fielding a full-strength team for the first time in recent matches, suggesting both teams should be at near full capacity.
- The match is played at Accor Stadium, a home advantage for South Sydney. Weather and other external conditions are typical for the location and time of year, with no major known disruptions.
- South Sydney is motivated to continue their winning streak and extend dominance over the Warriors at home. The Warriors are motivated to bounce back after their first home loss and improve their points differential to strengthen their position in the top three.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors: -141, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 122, Draw: 1900 | New Zealand Warriors | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | New Zealand Warriors: -1.5 -110, South Sydney Rabbitohs: +1.5 -120 | New Zealand Warriors -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115 | Over 45.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 45.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite South Sydney's strong home record and recent form, advanced predictive analytics models and betting market sentiment favor New Zealand Warriors to win this match by approximately 8 points, reflecting a slight edge in confidence for the away team.
Predicted Score: New Zealand Warriors 24 – 16 South Sydney Rabbitohs
