Match Analysis: Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-28
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game Overview
Toronto FC will host Philadelphia Union at BMO Field in an MLS match on May 28, 2025. Philadelphia Union currently lead the MLS standings, whereas Toronto FC is positioned 13th. Philadelphia Union has shown strong form this season, while Toronto FC has struggled to maintain consistency. Past encounters, including a recent 2-1 win by Toronto FC over Philadelphia Union, indicate competitive matches but favor Philadelphia Union overall given their better league standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia Union hold the 1st place in the MLS standings, indicating strong and consistent performance this season. Toronto FC, ranked 13th, have shown some spark such as their recent 2-1 win at home against Philadelphia Union but overall have been less consistent. Philadelphia Union’s attacking and defensive stats outperform Toronto FC’s on a season-long basis.
- Recent head-to-head meetings have been closely contested. Toronto FC won the last meeting 2-1 on May 17, 2025. Historically, Philadelphia Union have had better results overall but Toronto FC have shown they can win at home. Matches typically are competitive with moderate goals.
- No specific injury information is currently available for either side. Both teams are assumed to have their key players available for this fixture.
- The match is played at Toronto FC’s home ground, BMO Field. Home advantage may help Toronto FC given their better performance at home compared to away. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal with no exceptional external disruptions expected.
- Philadelphia Union, as league leaders, will aim to maintain their top position with a win. Toronto FC is motivated to improve their standing and capitalize on home advantage, also looking to avenge recent losses and build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Union: 1.36, Toronto FC: 1.86, Draw: 2.5 | Philadelphia Union | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Philadelphia Union -0.5: 1.29, Toronto FC +50: 1.72 | Philadelphia Union -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: 1.3, Under 2.5: 1.02 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto FC 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Union are predicted to edge this match due to better form, higher league standing, and overall squad strength, but Toronto FC's home advantage and recent win suggest a closely contested game likely decided by a single goal.
Predicted Score: Toronto FC 1 – 2 Philadelphia Union