Match Analysis: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-23
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Comerica Park
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians in an MLB matchup at Comerica Park. Starting pitchers are Slade Cecconi (0-1, 5.40 ERA) for Cleveland and Jackson Jobe (4-0, 4.12 ERA) for Detroit. Both are right-handed and making their first career starts against the opposing team. The Tigers hold a better overall season record (33-18) compared to the Guardians (27-22) and enter as favorites with home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers have a strong home record and excel when favored, winning approximately 73% of such games this season, with a 59-60% estimated win probability. The Guardians have performed decently as underdogs but have a less consistent record in these scenarios, winning about 50% of their underdog games.
- There is limited direct recent head-to-head data in the sources, but Tigers' home dominance and stronger season form give them an edge.
- No significant injury reports were noted in the sources for either team impacting this game.
- The game is played at Comerica Park, giving the Tigers home field advantage. Weather or other external conditions were not mentioned.
- Tigers, being the stronger team and playing at home, are motivated to maintain their status as favorites. Guardians will aim to upset on the road and improve their record against favored opponents.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers: -130, Cleveland Guardians: 110 | Detroit Tigers win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers: -1.5 146, Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 -176 | Detroit Tigers to cover -1.5 run spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -110, Under 8.5: -110 | Under 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers to win in a close game with a total runs under 8.5.
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 4 – Cleveland Guardians 3