Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 6:05 AM UTC
- Location: Go Media Stadium, Auckland, NZ
Game Overview
The New Zealand Warriors will host the Canberra Raiders in Round 12 of the NRL 2025 season at Go Media Stadium in Auckland. Both teams have displayed varying form in the season, with the Warriors showing stronger winning probabilities in recent analytics. This match is expected to be competitive, testing the Raiders' resilience away from home against the Warriors' home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Warriors have recently demonstrated robust performance at home, with predictive analytics suggesting a 66% chance of victory over the Raiders based on simulations. The Raiders have been competitive but slightly less consistent in away games, impacting their win expectancy.
- Historically, the Warriors have a slight edge over the Raiders in recent encounters. Previous matches in the 2025 season have seen the Warriors winning key games, including Round 1 at GIO Stadium Canberra where models strongly favored the Warriors.
- No explicit recent injury reports found for either team ahead of this match, suggesting both squads could field near full strength lineups.
- The match will be played at the Warriors' home ground in Auckland, providing a home-field advantage. Weather or other environmental conditions have not been reported to significantly influence game outcomes.
- As a mid-season clash, motivation is expected to be high for both teams aiming to secure vital points for ladder positioning. The Warriors will seek to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Raiders aim to upset the hosts to improve their standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors: -130, Canberra Raiders: 116, Draw: 2000 | New Zealand Warriors | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Spread | New Zealand Warriors: -1.5 -120, Canberra Raiders: +1.5 -110 | New Zealand Warriors to cover -1.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 | Under 44.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 44.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Zealand Warriors to win, leveraging their stronger home form and recent statistical dominance over the Raiders.
Predicted Score: Warriors 24 – Raiders 18