Match Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-24
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Spain
Game Overview
Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca meet in a La Liga fixture at Estadio de Vallecas. Rayo currently sits 8th with 51 points, while Mallorca is 10th with 47 points. Rayo has shown stronger recent form at home with an unbeaten record in 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions. In contrast, Mallorca is struggling away with only 1 win in their last 11 away matches and a recent streak of 3 consecutive away losses. Historically, Rayo has a tough record against Mallorca, having won only 2 of their last 17 La Liga meetings, and lost 14 of 24 overall encounters[3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Rayo Vallecano have a more stable recent home performance and are mid-table with a solid points tally, whereas Mallorca is on a poor away run with multiple consecutive losses. Rayo has 3 wins in their last 6 matches, Mallorca suffered 4 defeats in their last 6 La Liga games. Mallorca's away form is particularly weak, which is a critical factor given the game is at Rayo's home venue[5].
- Historically, Mallorca has dominated the head-to-head with Rayo, winning 14 out of 24 matches. However, recent form favors Rayo at home. Rayo's only 2 wins in the last 17 La Liga meetings against Mallorca indicate a challenging matchup but slight home advantage could balance this[5].
- No specific injury updates are available from the sources. Both teams are presumed to have their key players available for this match, as no major absences have been reported.
- Match venue is Estadio de Vallecas, providing a home advantage to Rayo. The timing aligns with normal rest and preparation cycles, so no unusual external factors are foreseen impacting the match outcome.
- With Rayo Vallecano seeking to consolidate their top-half standing and Mallorca fighting to improve their mid-table position, motivation levels are high for both sides. Rayo's home form and Mallorca's poor away performance might influence motivation, favoring the home team.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Rayo Vallecano: -185, Mallorca: 525, Draw: 310 | Rayo Vallecano win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Rayo Vallecano -1: -105, Mallorca +1: -115 | Rayo Vallecano -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Rayo Vallecano -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rayo Vallecano is favored to win, based on home advantage, recent form, and Mallorca's poor away results. A close match is expected but Rayo's stability and motivation likely tip the scale in their favor.
Predicted Score: 2-1