Match Analysis: AC Milan vs Monza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-24
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy
Game Overview
AC Milan faces Monza at home in a Serie A match. Milan are in much better form and league position, while Monza are struggling near the bottom of the table. Milan have dominated recent head-to-heads and are heavy favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan is in good form, especially at home, having won 8 home games. Monza is in poor form, with only two away wins this season and a poor overall record. Milan have scored more than double the goals per game compared to Monza in head-to-heads[2][3].
- AC Milan have won 8 of 9 direct matches, with Monza winning only 1. Milan average 2.44 goals per match against Monza, who average only 0.89. Milan's attack is significantly stronger than Monza's defense[1][2].
- No specific injury updates provided in current data.
- Venue is Milan's home ground (San Siro), historically a strong advantage for AC Milan[3].
- Milan are fighting for a higher finish and possibly European spots, while Monza are struggling to avoid the bottom of the table. Milan have more motivation and momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan: -435, Monza: 900, Draw: 600 | AC Milan win (88-92% historical win probability in direct matches) | ★★★★★ 90% |
Spread | AC Milan: -2 (-102), Monza: +2 (-118) | AC Milan to cover -2 spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 3.5: -115, Under 3.5: -105 | Over 3.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AC Milan at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan is strongly favored to win, likely with multiple goals. Monza's away struggles and poor head-to-head record make a surprise unlikely. Expect Milan to cover the spread and a high likelihood of over 3.5 goals if Milan's attack fires.
Predicted Score: AC Milan 3-0 Monza