Match Analysis: Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-24
- Time: 9:35 AM UTC
- Location: Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
Game Overview
The Sydney Roosters host the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at Industree Group Stadium in Gosford, with both teams eager to assert dominance in this Round 12 NRL clash. The match is marked by the absence of key Roosters players due to State of Origin duties and injury, forcing the team to rely on younger players. Despite this, the Roosters have a strong recent head-to-head record against the Sharks and have won their last five matches at this venue this decade. The Sharks come in as strong favourites based on recent form and bookmaker odds, especially after a recent emphatic 44-12 victory over the Roosters on their home ground. This match is expected to be competitive with the Sharks seen as the likely winners but with value opportunities on the Roosters given the market's underestimation of their chances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sydney Roosters are dealing with significant player absences including Angus Crichton, Connor Watson, Spencer Leniu, Robert Toia, Lindsay Collins (all on representative duty), and injured prop Naufahu Whyte. They showed resilience in a close loss to the Bulldogs last round. The Sharks have posted dominant recent victories, including a big 44-12 win against the Roosters earlier this season, indicating strong attacking form.
- The Roosters hold a strong recent head-to-head advantage with eight wins in the last ten meetings against the Sharks. However, the Sharks convincingly won the latest clash by a large margin, demonstrating that they can overcome past trends.
- Roosters missing six top-tier players due to State of Origin and one key injury – Naufahu Whyte. Sharks appear to have a full-strength squad with no significant injuries reported.
- Playing at Gosford’s Industree Group Stadium, where the Roosters have a 50% win rate over 20 matches and have won their past five matches this decade, potentially mitigating some disadvantage. The match timing and player availability affected by State of Origin selections are critical.
- The Sharks are motivated to maintain momentum and justify their heavy favoritism. The Roosters are motivated to prove resilience despite missing key players and to capitalize on home ground familiarity and a strong historical record at the venue.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -325, Sydney Roosters: 255, Draw: 2300 | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -10.5 -110, Sydney Roosters: +10.5 -120 | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks to cover -10.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 | Under 44.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite the Sharks being strong favorites, the Roosters' historical head-to-head strength against them and home ground advantage provide a solid chance for an upset. However, the Sharks' current form and squad fitness give them the edge to win most likely by a margin slightly less than the spread.
Predicted Score: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 26 – Sydney Roosters 16
