Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-21
- Time: 5:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Detroit Tigers in the final game of their 3-game MLB series. The Cardinals hold a 27-21 record and sit 2nd in the NL Central, while the Tigers lead the AL Central with a 31-17 record. The game features a pitching matchup with Cardinals' probable starter A. Pallante (4-2, 4.11 ERA) against a Tigers' right-handed pitcher yet to be announced. The teams are relatively evenly matched offensively, with Detroit averaging 5.4 runs/game versus 4.9 for St. Louis. Weather at Busch Stadium is favorable, with a temperature near 73Β°F and a 14 mph WNW wind. Bettors face close moneyline odds and a moderate total of 8.5 runs for over/under bets.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central with a strong record of 31-17 and better ERA (3.36) compared to St. Louis' 3.68. Tigers average .260 batting avg with 60 HR, while Cardinals have a slightly lower .237 avg and 46 HR. St. Louis has shown resilience at home but Detroit's balanced offense and pitching give them an edge.
- This series is a three-game set with the final game today. Both teams have traded wins, making this matchup pivotal. Historically, Tigers have had competitive games against the Cardinals, and the home advantage is the key edge for St. Louis.
- No major injury updates have been reported for either team that would significantly affect the lineup or pitching staff for this game.
- Weather conditions are mild with no rain expected. The wind at 14 mph WNW could slightly favor hitters but is not expected to drastically impact gameplay at Busch Stadium.
- Detroit is leading their division and looking to extend momentum on the road. St. Louis is eager to defend home turf and close the gap in standings, adding competitive motivation for both sides.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers: -104, St. Louis Cardinals: -112 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers: -1.5 162, St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 -196 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -115, Under 8.5: -105 | Under 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the pitching matchup, team strengths, and home advantage, the prediction favors the St. Louis Cardinals to win a close game, relying on home-field support and ability to contain the Tigers' offense.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4 – Detroit Tigers 3