Match Analysis: Parramatta Eels vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-23
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Game Overview
The Parramatta Eels face off against the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in Round 12 of the 2025 NRL season. This clash features two intense rivals with Manly favored by bookmakers but Parramatta presenting some slight value in odds. The match occurs during State of Origin period, causing key player absences that impact team dynamics and depth.
Key Factors to Consider
- Manly Sea Eagles hold a strong form leading into this match, reflected in the moneyline odds and their current season performance. Parramatta Eels have been competitive but impacted by Origin commitments which has forced changes in their lineup, such as Mitch Moses and Zac Lomax missing. Parramatta also has Kelma Tuilagi returning from suspension, which may bolster their forward pack.
- Historically, matches between these clubs are closely contested with neither side dominating significantly. Earlier season encounter data shows balanced contests, and current betting markets suggest a competitive game with a slight edge to Manly.
- Parramatta Eels have Mitch Moses and Zac Lomax unavailable due to Origin duty. Dean Hawkins steps in at halfback. Kelma Tuilagi returns from suspension. No critical injuries reported that significantly weaken either team's core strength at this time.
- State of Origin period affects player availability, impacting squad depth and experience. Venue is home for Parramatta at CommBank Stadium, which offers some home-ground advantage. Weather or other environmental factors were not specified but could influence play style and scoring.
- Parramatta is motivated to capitalize on home advantage and prove their resilience despite player absences. Manly aims to maintain their favored status and extend their winning momentum, also motivated by the rivalry and season standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: -225, Parramatta Eels: 180, Draw: 2200 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -6.5: -110, Parramatta Eels +6.5: -120 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to cover -6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 45.5: -120, Under 45.5: -110 | Over 45.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 45.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The prediction leans towards a Manly Sea Eagles win given their current form and betting market odds. However, Parramatta Eels present good value and have a meaningful chance to upset, especially due to home advantage and the return of key players like Kelma Tuilagi.
Predicted Score: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 26 - 18 Parramatta Eels
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