Match Analysis: Internacional-RS vs Bahia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-28
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre
Game Overview
The upcoming Copa Libertadores match between Internacional-RS and Bahia pits two Brazilian clubs with contrasting recent forms and a rich head-to-head history. Internacional-RS, playing at home, have historically dominated Bahia in previous encounters, winning the majority of their meetings, while Bahia enter the match with some momentum from recent away victories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Internacional-RS has shown mixed recent form but overall have a stronger historical record against Bahia, having won 13 of their last 23 meetings. Bahia, meanwhile, have exhibited better recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches but have a poorer head-to-head performance against Internacional-RS. Internacional tends to score more goals on average per match than Bahia, but also concedes more, making for moderately open games historically.
- Out of 23 matches between these sides, Internacional-RS won 17 (62.96%), Bahia won 4 (14.81%), and 6 ended in draws (22.22%). The matches average about 2.3 goals per game, with Internacional generally dominating the encounters. Most recent head-to-head results favor Internacional-RS with consistent wins in home and away matches.[1][2][3][5]
- No specific injury data is available from the provided sources. It is assumed both teams are close to full strength given the importance of the Copa Libertadores fixture.
- Playing at home gives Internacional-RS a significant advantage, supported by their dominant historical home record. Weather and pitch conditions are unknown but typically in Porto Alegre at this time are favorable for football.
- Copa Libertadores matches carry high stakes. Internacional-RS will be motivated to assert dominance at home and build on their historical superiority, while Bahia will aim to capitalize on their better recent form to cause an upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Internacional-RS: 100, Bahia: 285, Draw: 220 | Internacional-RS win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Internacional-RS_minus_50: 100, Bahia_plus_50: -130 | Internacional-RS -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over_2.25: -118, Under_2.25: -112 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Internacional-RS 24% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Internacional-RS at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Internacional-RS is favored to win the match due to their strong historical dominance, home advantage, and the odds reflecting a heavy favorite status. However, Bahia's recent form suggests they will be competitive, making a draw or narrow win possible outcomes as well.
Predicted Score: 1-0