Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs New York Mets - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-18
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees will host the New York Mets in a highly anticipated MLB matchup. Both teams have a rich rivalry history, with the Yankees generally holding the upper hand historically, but recent matchups have been more competitive. The Yankees won the most recent game on May 16, 2025, by a score of 6-2 at their home field. This match is expected to be closely contested with pitching, batting form, and home advantage playing pivotal roles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Recently, the Yankees have shown strong performance against the Mets with 4 wins out of the last 5 meetings and an average of 6.6 runs per match, coupled with an 80% success rate against the spread in these games. The Mets have had a mixed record with 4 wins out of the last 5 but lower scoring (2.8 runs per match) and only 40% success against the spread in these encounters.
- Historically, the Yankees lead the all-time series with 84 wins to the Mets' 67. In recent seasons, the Mets had a better run but since 2021 the Yankees have won 12 of 18 matches. The teams have met multiple times with the Yankees holding a 55.1% win rate in regular season games. The last head-to-head game was a Yankees win 6-2 at home.
- No critical injury updates are explicitly available in the provided data. Usual check on starting pitchers and key batsmen status should be considered close to game time.
- Home field advantage at Yankee Stadium favors the Yankees. Weather conditions or other external factors are not mentioned and presumed neutral.
- Both New York teams have high motivation due to rivalry and standings implications. The Yankees, holding home advantage and recent momentum, may have a slight motivational edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Mets: 140, New York Yankees: -166 | New York Yankees to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | New York Mets: 1.5 -142, New York Yankees: -1.5 118 | New York Yankees -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 8.5 -118, Under: 8.5 -104 | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Yankees -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Yankees' home advantage, recent superior form against the Mets, and the current odds, the prediction is a New York Yankees win. The game is expected to be competitive but the Yankees' stronger offense and pitching depth are likely to prevail.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 - Mets 4
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