Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Ole Miss Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-23
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baum-Walker Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Game Overview
This NCAA baseball quarterfinal SEC Tournament match features the Arkansas Razorbacks (ranked No. 5) hosting the Ole Miss Rebels (ranked No. 17) after Ole Miss's recent victory over Florida. Both teams have shown strong performances in the season, with Arkansas holding the home advantage and a higher seed in the tournament.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas Razorbacks have demonstrated dominant form with key wins including a series sweep over #1 Texas and consistent strong offensive output throughout the season. Ole Miss Rebels have also performed well with a 38-18 record, recently defeating Florida in the SEC tournament but have struggled against Arkansas, notably a 3-12 loss at home earlier in the season.
- Arkansas leads the recent head-to-head meetings, including a decisive 12-3 win over Ole Miss in Oxford on March 15, 2025. This dominance in prior encounters provides Arkansas a psychological and tactical edge.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of this match, allowing both sides to field their best lineups.
- Playing at Baum-Walker Stadium offers Arkansas a strong home crowd advantage. Weather and field conditions are expected to be neutral with no adverse effects forecasted.
- With this being a high-stake SEC Tournament quarterfinal, both teams are highly motivated. Arkansas aims to assert their higher seed status and leverage home advantage, while Ole Miss is motivated to continue their upset run after a recent notable victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: -238, Ole Miss Rebels: 180 | Arkansas Razorbacks | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: -1.5 (-130), Ole Miss Rebels: +1.5 (100) | Arkansas Razorbacks -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5: -115, Under 10.5: -115 | Under 10.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 10.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas Razorbacks to win narrowly, leveraging home field advantage and prior season dominance. Expect a competitive game with controlled pitching and tactical hitting from Arkansas to edge Ole Miss.
Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 6 – 4 Ole Miss Rebels