Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-18
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Fiorentina and Bologna is set to be a competitive mid-table clash at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina, currently 9th with 59 points, will face 7th placed Bologna, who have 62 points. Both teams have shown mixed recent form with Fiorentina losing 3 of their last 5 league games and Bologna showing an inconsistent pattern but maintaining a slightly higher league standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fiorentina have a home advantage historically, having won 13 of their last 23 home matches against Bologna, with a strong goal difference of 32-14. However, recent form shows Fiorentina suffering losses to Venezia and Roma, and a narrow loss in the UEFA Conference League. Bologna have recorded 16 wins, 14 draws, and 6 losses in the season, indicating resilience but also several draws that could point to cautious gameplay.
- Historically, Fiorentina have the edge with 19 wins over Bologna’s 9 in 46 meetings, and a goal difference of +17 in their favor (60-43). When Fiorentina play at home, they have a notably strong record with 13 wins, 8 draws, and only 2 losses in the last 23 matches against Bologna. The most frequent result in home games is 1-0 to Fiorentina and the overall most common result between the two sides is a 1-1 draw.
- Fiorentina are missing key players Danilo Cataldi, Nicolo Zaniolo, and Edoardo Bove, which may impact squad depth and creative options. No specific injury reports for Bologna have been noted, suggesting their squad is relatively fit for this fixture.
- The match is late in the Serie A season (gameweek 37), so fatigue and motivation linked to league position or European qualification could influence team performance. Weather and travel conditions are typical for May in Florence and favor home team familiarity.
- Bologna, positioned higher in the table, may be motivated to consolidate a European qualification spot, while Fiorentina will aim to close the gap and secure a better final league ranking. The home crowd at Artemio Franchi could provide Fiorentina with additional impetus to perform strongly.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bologna: 165, Fiorentina: 170, Draw: 230 | Fiorentina Win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Spread | Bologna: 0 -112, Fiorentina: 0 -108 | Fiorentina -0 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fiorentina 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fiorentina at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Fiorentina's home advantage, superior historical record at home against Bologna, but current injury concerns and mixed recent form, the game is expected to be tightly contested. A narrow Fiorentina win or draw is likely, with a low-scoring game anticipated.
Predicted Score: 1-0