Match Analysis: Valladolid vs Alavés – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-18
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio José Zorrilla
Game Overview
Valladolid hosts Alavés in a crucial La Liga fixture, with both teams aiming for valuable points in the closing stages of the season. Alavés are slight favorites on the road, while Valladolid hopes to leverage home advantage for a much-needed result. Historically, matches between these sides have been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals in 8 of the last 9 meetings at Valladolid's ground[3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Alavés have shown better form and are clear favorites according to bookmakers. Valladolid, despite home advantage, has struggled for consistency and goal-scoring efficiency, especially in recent home matches[5].
- The most common result between these teams is 0-1, favoring Alavés. Under 2.5 goals has occurred in the majority of their recent encounters[3][5].
- No key injury news reported in leading previews. Both teams are expected to field full-strength squads[1].
- Stadium advantage for Valladolid, but no significant external disruptions expected[1].
- Both teams are highly motivated, with possible implications for league standings, as the season approaches its final rounds[1][5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés: -165, Valladolid: 460, Draw: 295 | Alavés win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Alavés -0.75: -125, Valladolid +75: 105 | Alavés cover (-0.75) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: 105, Under 2.5: -125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés -12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a tightly contested match with few goals. Alavés are favored to edge out a narrow victory, but Valladolid's home form shouldn't be underestimated. The match is likely to be decided by a single goal, in line with historical trends between these sides.
Predicted Score: 0-1