Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Diego St Aztecs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 22, 2025
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Don Weir Field at Peccole Park, Reno, NV
Game Overview
The Nevada Wolf Pack hosts the San Diego State Aztecs in a crucial late-season NCAA baseball matchup. Nevada had a solid 2024 season, finishing tied for third in the Mountain West but with a slightly positive overall record (25-26). Their 2025 schedule continues to test their depth. The game is part of a home series for Nevada, offering them familiar conditions and crowd support[3][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- Nevada enters this matchup with a recent history of competitiveness in the Mountain West, despite a slightly sub-.500 overall record. Exact 2025 team records are not yet updated, but Nevada is considered a solid home team. San Diego Stateβs current form is less clear due to limited recent data, but historically they are capable of upsets.
- Previous head-to-heads are competitive, but there is no clear, recent dominance by either team. Both teams are familiar with each other and have traded wins in past meetings[5].
- No major injuries or absences have been reported for either team. Both sides appear close to full strength.
- Game played at Nevadaβs home field may provide a slight advantage for the Wolf Pack. No significant weather disruptions expected.
- With this being a late-season game, both teams are likely motivated to finish strong, but home advantage could tilt the balance toward Nevada, especially if they are vying for a higher conference finish.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: -315, San Diego St Aztecs: 230 | Nevada Wolf Pack win | High (75%) |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack: -3.5 110, San Diego St Aztecs: 3.5 -140 | Nevada Wolf Pack to cover -3.5 | Moderate (60%) |
| Over/under | Over: 13.5 -115, Under: 13.5 -115 | Over 13.5 runs | Moderate (55%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 13.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nevada Wolf Pack are favored to win at home, supported by bookmakersβ odds and recent home performance. San Diego State is capable of keeping it close but will need to overcome the home crowd and unfavorable odds.
Predicted Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 8, San Diego St Aztecs 4