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Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 11:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known for his volume striking and aggression, faces the younger and durable Melquizael Costa, who emphasizes defense and counter-striking. Both fighters enter with a motivation for a four-fight win streak, making this contest highly competitive and significant for their career trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Julian Erosa brings a record of 31-12-0 with a high volume of significant strikes at 6.40 per minute and a 49% strike accuracy, but he absorbs a high rate at 6.21 strikes per minute. Melquizael Costa holds a 23-7-0 record with lower strike output at 3.86 per minute but better defense, absorbing just 2.72 strikes per minute and defending 52% of strikes. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy around 49%.
  • There is no recorded previous bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, marking this fight as their first direct encounter.
  • No reported injuries to either fighter have been indicated close to the fight date, suggesting both are expected to enter at full health.
  • The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, reducing travel and acclimatization concerns. No significant external distractions or controversies have been reported impacting either fighter’s preparedness.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a 4-fight win streak, which would boost their UFC rankings and career momentum. Erosa, the veteran, aims to demonstrate his finishing prowess, while Costa looks to leverage his defensive skills and youth to outlast Erosa.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Julian Erosa: +142, Melquizael Costa: -170 Melquizael Costa ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Julian Erosa: 3.5 -110, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 -120 Melquizael Costa -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 124, Under: 2.5 -160 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melquizael Costa -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the defensive durability and lower absorption rate of strikes by Melquizael Costa combined with his ability to defend strikes effectively, Costa has a statistical edge despite Erosa's higher volume and finishing reputation. Costa’s youth and defense likely make him the favorite, but Erosa’s pressure and experience could yield a competitive fight. The prediction favors Melquizael Costa to win by decision or late stoppage.

Predicted Score: Melquizael Costa wins via decision (3-0 rounds)


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Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction

Match Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-05-17 Time: 11:45 PM UTC Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA Game Overview The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known […]

Julian Erosa May 17, 2025 Melquizael Costa MMA/Boxing

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Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 17, 2025
  • Time: 1:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada

Game Overview

Gilbert Burns faces off against Michael Morales in a crucial welterweight bout. Burns, a former UFC title challenger, is on a three-fight losing streak and seeks to revive his career. Morales, undefeated in the UFC, looks to extend his winning streak.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Burns has struggled with recent losses, while Morales has shown impressive performances, including a knockout win over Neil Magny. Burns' grappling skills are a significant advantage, but Morales' reach and recent momentum could be challenging for him.
  • This is their first meeting, with Burns having more experience but Morales being younger and more aggressive.
  • No recent injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The event takes place in a neutral venue, but Burns' experience might give him an edge in handling pressure.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, with Burns seeking to break his losing streak and Morales aiming to solidify his position in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gilbert Burns: 575, Michael Morales: -850 Michael Morales ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Gilbert Burns +5.5: 250, Michael Morales -5.5: -370 Michael Morales ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 3.5: 100, Under 3.5: -130 Under 3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Michael Morales -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Morales is favored to win due to his recent performances and youth, but Gilbert Burns' experience could make it a competitive fight.

Predicted Score: Morales by Decision


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Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 17, 2025
  • Time: 1:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rodolfo Bellato is favored to win against Paul Craig in their upcoming light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night. Bellato is looking to capitalize on Craig's 'big name' to elevate his career. Craig, known for his submissions, will face Bellato, who boasts a strong record.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodolfo Bellato has a strong record of 12-2-0, while Paul Craig stands at 17-9-1. Bellato is likely to use his orthodox stance and significant reach disadvantage to his advantage through strategic fighting.
  • This is their first matchup, making it difficult to predict based on past performances against each other.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The fight is taking place in Las Vegas, which could affect fighters differently based on their experience in such environments.
  • Bellato is highly motivated to win and boost his career, using Craig's name to gain more recognition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -535 (Bellato), 400 (Craig) Bellato to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread -3.5 (-370) for Bellato, +3.5 (250) for Craig Bellato to win by more than 3.5 rounds not likely, as MMA fights are often decided early or go to decision. ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under 1.5 rounds (Over 100, Under -130) Under 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are capable of ending the fight early. ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rodolfo Bellato 275%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Rodolfo Bellato at 275% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rodolfo Bellato is predicted to win this fight based on his strong record and motivation to capitalize on Craig's name.

Predicted Score: Bellato to win by submission or TKO.


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Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 18, 2025
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Sodiq Yusuff, a featherweight, is moving up to lightweight on short notice to face Mairon Santos at UFC Vegas 106. Yusuff is returning after over a year following consecutive losses, while Santos is coming off a win and is a winner of The Ultimate Fighter 32.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sodiq Yusuff has a 13-4 record but has not fought since April 2024, losing his last two fights. Mairon Santos has a 15-1 record and is coming off a win at UFC 313.
  • This is the first fight between Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos.
  • No significant injury reports for either fighter.
  • Yusuff's weight class change might affect his performance. Santos's recent win could boost his confidence.
  • Both fighters are motivated to win, with Yusuff looking to end his losing streak and Santos seeking to continue his winning form.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mairon Santos: -135, Sodiq Yusuff: 114 Mairon Santos to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Mairon Santos: -3.5 140, Sodiq Yusuff: 3.5 -190 Take Mairon Santos -3.5 for a risky bet ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -220, Under: 2.5 170 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mairon Santos -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -98%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Based on recent performances, Mairon Santos is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Mairon Santos by TKO in Round 1


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Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursultan Ruziboev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursultan Ruziboev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 12:15 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursultan Ruziboev are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 106. Stoltzfus holds a 16-6-0 record, while Ruziboev boasts a 35-9-2 record (2 NC). The odds favor Ruziboev heavily, with a moneyline of -298 compared to Stoltzfus's +240.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Stoltzfus lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Ruziboev lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with the same accuracy rate. Ruziboev has a slight edge in defense, absorbing 3.78 strikes per minute while defending 50% of shots, compared to Stoltzfus's 3.29 strikes absorbed with a 46% defense rate.
  • There is no head-to-head data available for this matchup.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter.
  • The bout is at neutral ground, UFC Apex, which may not provide a significant advantage to either fighter.
  • Both fighters are motivated by the prospect of winning, but Ruziboev's recent form and experience may give him an edge in terms of confidence and strategy.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Stoltzfus: +240, Ruziboev: -298 Nursultan Ruziboev High
Spread Stoltzfus: 3.5 (+175), Ruziboev: -3.5 (-240) Take Ruziboev -3.5, but with moderate confidence due to the spread. Moderate
Over/under over: 1.5 (-105), under: 1.5 (-125) Over 1.5 rounds High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nursultan Ruziboev -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nursultan Ruziboev is favored to win due to his experience and recent form.

Predicted Score: Nursultan Ruziboev win by decision


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Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 17, 2025
  • Time: 11:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This upcoming MMA fight features Gabriel Green, a seasoned fighter with a record of 11-5, against Matheus Camilo, a newcomer to the UFC with a 9-2 record. The bout is part of UFC Fight Night 256, taking place in the welterweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gabriel Green has more UFC experience, which could be an advantage. However, Matheus Camilo is coming in with momentum from his recent performances.
  • There is no prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The fight's location and the presence of home fans might not significantly impact the outcome since both fighters are not from the venue's local area.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, with Camilo aiming to make a strong UFC debut and Green seeking to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gabriel Green: 190, Matheus Camilo: -230 Matheus Camilo ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gabriel Green: 3.5 110, Matheus Camilo: -3.5 -150 Matheus Camilo ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over: 2.5 120, Under: 2.5 -154 Under ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Matheus Camilo -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo is favored to win due to his recent success and Dana White's recognition through his 'Lookin' For a Fight' contract.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Matheus Camilo.


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Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 10:35 PM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

This Lightweight division matchup in the UFC features Jared Gordon, known for his aggressive approach, facing Thiago Moises, who excels at neutralizing opponents with his patient and poised fighting style. Moises has a solid wrestling and grappling game, while Gordon is expected to be the more active fighter. The fight is part of the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both fighters have similar records, with Gordon holding a slight edge in activity and aggression. Moises, however, has a more effective neutralizing style, which he uses to control opponents.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are noted.
  • No recent injuries are reported for either fighter.
  • The fight environment in the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims could favor Gordon's aggressive style, but Moises's calm approach might counterbalance this.
  • Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, but Gordon's aggressive style might indicate a higher level of motivation to outperform Moises.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -122 : 102 Jared Gordon ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread -3.5 175 : 3.5 -245 Jared Gordon ★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under 2.5 -330 : 2.5 240 Under ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jared Gordon 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 104%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon is likely to win via decision due to his aggressive strategy and ability to outwork opponents. However, Moises's grappling skills could pose a challenge if he can take Gordon down.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jared Gordon


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Yadier DelValle vs. Connor Matthews Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Yadier DelValle vs Connor Matthews – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 10:10 PM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA fight between Yadier DelValle and Connor Matthews is set to take place at UFC Vegas 106 in the Featherweight division. Yadier DelValle is undefeated with a record of 8-0-0, while Connor Matthews accepted this fight on short notice.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Yadier DelValle is undefeated and has a strong background in MMA, while Connor Matthews has had recent losses and is coming into this fight on short notice.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • There are no reported injuries for either fighter.
  • Connor Matthews' short notice and recent performance trends could negatively impact his chances.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, but Connor Matthews might be more driven due to overcoming short preparation time.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Yadier DelValle: -500, Connor Matthews: 380 Yadier DelValle ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Yadier DelValle: -3.5 -205, Connor Matthews: 3.5 150 Yadier DelValle ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -135, Under: 2.5 105 Over ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Yadier DelValle -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Yadier DelValle at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yadier DelValle is favored to win due to his undefeated record and Connor Matthews' short preparation time.

Predicted Score: Yadier DelValle by decision or late stoppage


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Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 9:40 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Vegas 106

Game Overview

Luana Santos and Tainara Lisboa are set to face each other in a bantamweight fight at UFC Vegas 106. Luana Santos is favored for her precise striking and grappling skills, while Tainara Lisboa is known for her aggressive fighting style.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Luana Santos' precise striking and grappling skills give her an edge, while Tainara Lisboa's aggressive approach could lead to early success.
  • There is no historical head-to-head data available for this matchup.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter.
  • Both fighters are from Brazil, which might not significantly impact the fight's dynamics.
  • Both fighters are motivated to win, with Luana Santos being favored to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -162 vs 136 Luana Santos ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread -3.5 140 vs 3.5 -190 Luana Santos ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 2.5 -270 vs Under 2.5 200 Over ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Luana Santos -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Luana Santos is likely to win due to her technical skills and current form.

Predicted Score: Luana Santos by decision


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Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 9:10 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Vegas 106 (Venue unspecified)

Game Overview

This UFC Strawweight prelims fight features Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes, scheduled for May 17, 2025, at 21:10 UTC. Elise Reed is known for her crisp technique and fluid movement, while Denise Gomes thrives on an aggressive pace. Gomes holds a UFC record of 4-2 with an overall 10-3, and Reed has a UFC record of 4-4 with an overall 8-4. The bout is expected to be a dynamic clash of styles with Gomes as the betting favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Denise Gomes has showcased a strong UFC performance with a 4-2 record, improving recently to 4-1 in UFC fights. Elise Reed has struggled to maintain consistency with a 4-4 UFC record, although her technique is highly regarded. Gomes’ aggressive style contrasts with Reed's technical and movement-based approach.
  • This is the first professional meeting between Denise Gomes and Elise Reed with no previous head-to-head records available.
  • No reported current injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • The fight is on UFC prelims card at UFC Vegas, which does not imply significant external pressure. Both fighters are motivated to improve rankings in the Strawweight division.
  • Denise Gomes seeks to build momentum after solid UFC performances, while Elise Reed aims to rebound from mixed results and prove her skill set at the UFC level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Denise Gomes: -600, Elise Reed: +440 Denise Gomes ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Denise Gomes: -3.5 -205, Elise Reed: +3.5 +150 Denise Gomes -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: +145 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Denise Gomes -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Denise Gomes is favored to win due to her aggressive style, stronger UFC recent form, and favorable odds. The fight may end before the final round given Gomes’ power and pace.

Predicted Score: Denise Gomes wins by TKO or decision before 3 rounds


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